Reply to suchmoon

Shelling of Mariupol

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

[...] I doubt I ever claimed they only publish absolute truth and nothing but the truth, but your rebuttals are quite pathetic. Like trying to claim that a couple thousand Ukrainians surrounded in Mariupol for a month managed to bomb themselves while defending against 20 BTGs of Russian forces. Makes no sense. Or that some social media comment is proof of something. Photo/video/witness evidence beats armchair expert opinions IMO.

First of all, there were more than "a couple thousand" Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol, since at least 2,500 of them surrendered to the Russian army.
Further, it makes sense for you when the Russian authorities bomb their gas pipelines in the waters controlled by NATO countries, but when the residents of Mariupol tell you that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and soldiers from Azov fired at their houses and held them captive, for some reason you refuse to believe these testimonies.
In December 2022, journalist Panchenko traveled from Kyiv to Mariupol and asked local residents who they thought had bombed Mariupol. Since this video is fresh, I will elaborate on their comments, as they are very important.

Source (26-30 minutes video in Russian)
Original in Russian in small print

Quote

- Было очень страшно. Естественно, взрывы, выстрелы.
- Кого вините в этом?
- Наверное, Украину, а кого ещё.
- Почему Украину?
- Потому что они бомбили по своим и знали, что будет. Никто не предупредил никого.
- Что вы тогда чувствовали?
- Что мы не защищены, в первую очередь. Самое страшное было, что по нам стреляли украинцы: по домам, где находились дети в подвалах, многоэтажных домах. Просто сидели в подвалах - там рожавшие были в этот момент. "Твари, мрази, закрой рот" - вот такое было. Кума моей мамы принимала роды у женщины. Они кричали: "Мразь, заткнись!" Они не выпускали деток. На улице здесь было, совсем рядом.
- Вы уверены, что это была Украина?
- Ну, да. По форме была Украина. Они же изначально занимали оборону.
- Под горящим домом сидели люди в подвале.
- А бомбил кто?
- Украина.
- Вам хочется это слово. Украина, Украина. Всё сделала Украина, ребята!
- Нет, но я просто хочу понять. Я в шоке.
- Моя кума лично видела и там были люди, которые в бомбоубежище прятались, что это всё сделала Украина. Они стреляли, они в квартиры ломились. Люди становились вот так вот (показывает), чтобы не заходили в их квартиры. Но было бесполезно. Они говорили: "Не отойдёшь - убью".
- Ужасные вещи вы рассказываете. А эвакуироваться можно было?
- Можно было, но это опасно было очень. Надо было бежать, Бог знает куда. Люди пешком шли, слёзно останавливали автомобили.
- Сейчас Украина думает, что она вернёт Донбасс. Что вы об этом думаете?
- Мы очень переживаем. Мы не хотим этого. Прятаться нам некуда больше.
- Если бы можно было обратиться к властям Украины и России, чтобы вы сказали?
- Защитите нас, пожалуйста. Не отдавайте нас больше Украине. До свидания.

English translation. Abbreviations: Resident (R), Journalist (J)

Code:

R: It was very scary. Naturally, explosions, shots.
J: Who do you blame for this?
R: Probably Ukraine, and who else.
J: Why Ukraine?
R: Because they bombed on their own and knew what would happen. Nobody warned anyone.
J: What did you feel then?
R: That we're not protected in the first place. The worst thing was that Ukrainians were shooting at us:
at houses where there were children in basements, multi-storey buildings. They just sat in the basements -
those who gave birth were there at that moment. "Creature, scum, shut your mouth" - that's what it was.
My mother's godmother assisted a woman in childbirth. They shouted: "Scum, shut up!"
They didn't let the kids out. On the street, it was very close.
J: Are you sure it was Ukraine?
R: Well, yes. The uniform was Ukrainian. They were originally on the defensive.
People were sitting in the basement under the burning house.
J: Who bombed?
R: Ukraine. You want that word! Ukraine, Ukraine. Ukraine did everything, guys!
J: No, but I just want to understand. I'm shocked.
R: My godfather personally saw and there were people who were hiding in a bomb shelter that Ukraine did all this.
They shot, they broke into apartments. People stood like this (shows) so as not to enter their apartments.
But it was useless. They said: "If you don't leave, I'll kill you."
J: Terrible things you say. Was it possible to evacuate?
R: It was possible, but it was very dangerous. I had to run, God knows where. People walked on foot, tearfully stopped cars.
J: Now in Ukraine they think to return Donbass. What do you think of it?
R: We are very worried. We don't want this. We have nowhere else to hide.
J: If you could turn to the authorities of Ukraine and Russia, what would you say?
R: Protect us, please. Don't give us back to Ukraine. Goodbye.

In the same video, at 29 minutes, an elderly couple in Mariupol said that they were kicked out of their house by Ukrainian soldiers on March 20, threatening them: "Otherwise, you won't be here in 5 minutes". At 29 minutes 23 seconds, the woman called the "fascists" those Ukrainians who kicked her out of the house. Then, at 30 minutes, the man says that fighters from the Azov regiment were located across the house from them. According to the man, Azov mortarmen went to the cemetery and bombed peaceful houses in all directions, 360 degrees, in order to destroy the infrastructure in Mariupol. The journalist asked him what was the point for Ukraine to shoot down civilians. The man said that it was necessary to ask them, because there were no pro-Russian troops like the DPR.

Additional links about Mariupol

- The woman told Reuters that soldiers from Azov kept her in a bunker and did not let her out for evacuation. But her comment was censored.
- An article was published in a Greek newspaper, how Azov militants held Russian-speaking citizens of Mariupol as hostages.
- There is also a censored fragment from Spanish RTVE channel about Azov.
- Video with residents of Mariupol with harsh criticism of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, published on April 20 (in Russian) - see my post on April 20 for the English translation.
- German journalist spoke with a resident of Mariupol.

My explanations would have been shaky if I hadn't cited the references to various residents from Mariupol who were very critical of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and accused them of shelling. But you turn a blind eye to these data. If you don't believe all these people, then go to Mariupol (the hostilities there have long ended) and interview civilians yourself.

Whataboutism

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

I said "[you] post Z-links and other Russian propaganda as facts." You responded by saying that I post Western propaganda as facts. That is whataboutism as defined above (counter-accusation). And even if your counter-accusation were true, it doesn't make any sense as a counter-argument.

You accuse me of replicating false data in favor of the Russian side, which I allegedly do not even question. In my opinion, I'm doing something else: I present events from the other side of the conflict, relying on various information sources. I didn't count by the number of links, but according to my feelings, regarding the military conflict in Ukraine, I still refer to European, American and Ukrainian sites more often in my posts, and I have to refer to Russian sources when some news is hushed up in the USA or Europe, for example, about missile shelling of Donetsk and Luhansk by Ukrainian armed groups or when western media do not show interviews with residents of Mariupol. Therefore, I have to dilute the local information field about the events in Ukraine with those messages that, due to censorship, are not published in the Western media.

The difference between reliable sources and additional information

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

I'd dig them up but it seems kinda pointless since you'd find someone on the internet saying that it's not true and that will be your rebuttal.

I see that you don't understand about that comment link. So again we have to go into a long analysis.
You referred to the YouTube channel of one of the Ukrainian media (which in their mass by May had already managed to greatly discredit themselves with various fakes: the resurrected dead from Snake Island, the Ghost of Kyiv, etc.), but you still wrote without any doubt the following: "... Glorious Russian military at its best - killing civilians. Or attacking parks and playgrounds".
That is, you accused the Russian army in a frenzied bombing of civilian infrastructure. I published a post about how things may not be as you think and that the strike was in response to a howitzer shot that was located there, referring to a comment by a user who didn't just write "this is fake", without any details. This user also provided the address where it happened, howitzer location, the details of the event. This user doesn't have a nickname, but rather a common Ukrainian surname. Her profile was created back in December 2021. The post didn't look like a comment from a troll and a deceiver. A troll would not bother with such details, for the reason that users of video platforms usually pay little attention to comments. But instead of having at least a little doubt about the accusatory information that you spread, you reproach me for unreliable sources. Naturally, a comment in social networks is also not a reliable source for me and is not equivalent to an article in the WSJ. But you don't seem to understand the difference between sources of information and additional information. As the Ukrainian media wrote, this is how it is for you. And it doesn't matter to you what people write in the comments there, because in your opinion their words are not significant at all.

The trigger

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

I kinda expected that "genocidal dictator" will trigger you, but holy crap, this is a lot of work to justify the old deluded wannabe tsar.

It's not about definitions. I don't like it when well-known Bitcointalk users write nonsense, talking that they understand the topic. That comment about the background of the conflict was intended not only for you, but also for other forum readers. In general, I think that users should try their best when publishing each post so that the forum doesn't look like a chat.

How the Russian army will be able to achieve its goals

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

But let's assume in some contrived alternate universe Putin's invasion was justifiable. How do you imagine he's going to achieve his objectives? So far he's managed to kill many more Donbas residents than were killed in the prior 8 years, and left a huge trail of destruction everywhere, from ruined Mariupol (or e.g. Severodonetsk - not even basic services/utilities functioning 6 months after occupation) to the capital of one of their new republics Kherson, which they're bombing non-stop killing supposedly new Russian citizens (TBH I don't really follow the annexation logic if there is one).

Only the General Staff of the Russian Federation knows in which direction the main blow of the Russian troops will be delivered, but I believe that it will be carried out in the next 1-1.5 months. Since this is facilitated by weather conditions convenient for a Russian attack and the monotonous destruction of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. At the moment, the main hostilities are taking place near Bakhmut/Artemovsk. The Russian leadership doesn't even have to invent anything special now, the Zelensky regime itself brings Ukrainian soldiers to exterminate the male population, to my great regret, precisely because Ukrainian and Western propaganda feeds Ukrainians with illusions that they have some chance of winning this massacre. When the Ukrainians "run out", then the Alliance forces will bring more Poles, first in the form of mercenaries, and then regular troops will go.

Now remarks to minor comments:
- Where do you get information about Severodonetsk?
- The Russian authorities call part of the shelling of Kherson a Ukrainian provocation. Given the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Donetsk, Luhansk and in Mariupol (in the spring of 2022 - read above), this should at least be taken into account.
- Another question about "many more Donbas residents" - what sources do you refer to? According to the UN website, from February 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022, 6884 people died in total civilians throughout Ukraine. 3569 people died in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, and 483 people died in the territory controlled by Russia. From April 2014 to December 31, 2021, over 14,000 people died in Donbas, of which 4,400 were Ukrainian Armed Forces, 3,404 were civilians, and 6,500 were members of armed groups.

Retreat

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Yes. And likely that's how it will end in any case, give or take the exact line the withdrawal will happen at.

Your optimism about the capabilities of the Ukrainian army is not at all clear what is caused. This can only be explained by the oversaturation of Western and Ukrainian propaganda. A third of the population of Ukraine has left for other countries. The rest of the population is now freezing without light and heat in cold houses. They do not have their own economy, the Ukrainian military forces are kept only at the expense of foreign handouts. In Ukraine, half of the energy infrastructure has already been destroyed, as well as most of the tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft. The only resource that the Armed Forces of Ukraine still has in large numbers is the people whom the Kyiv regime monotonously sends to be slaughtered under the artillery fire of the Russian army. Russia has not even begun to use the heavy means of destruction it has. This is not about nuclear weapons, but about heavy conventional weapons. If it comes to them, then there will be nothing left of Ukraine at all. Your logic is strange: you call Putin a "genocidal dictator", but do you think that he will simply withdraw troops without a good fight? I have already written before that the whole of Europe, together with Ukraine, will be destroyed in the fire rather than the Russian government will cede Crimea and Donbass. And judging by the rhetoric of the Russian authorities, they will not stop in Donbass.

New mentions of bayraktars in the media

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Which media? I see them mentioned a lot, particularly in Russian channels.

You mean new information about TB2 attacks by Ukraine and their destruction? This is unlikely, because the last time the Russian Ministry of Defense mentioned them was a month and a half ago. If you have other information, please provide links.

The use of bayraktars in Ukraine

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Seems that Bayraktars are now mostly on recon duty, what with Ukrainians having better weapons like HIMARS now.

People outside the General Staff of Ukraine who do not have complete information can only speculate. And your opinion that bayraktars are now used only for reconnaissance is unlikely, since there are much cheaper Ukrainian analogues for this. Why risk expensive drones and literally hammer nails with a microscope? The main characteristic of the Turkish drone is to strike at the enemy.
Also, the Bulgarian information resource drew attention to the disappearance of bayraktars.
I see you are satisfied that the AFU is now using HIMARS. Do you know exactly who the AFU uses them against?

The "Main Liar of the Night" award goes to...

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Of course Russians could be lying, that sometimes happens too

Many American, European, and especially Ukrainian sources have shown themselves quite clearly in the publication of all kinds of fakes. For example, yesterday the main liar of the evening was the Ukrainian deputy Lesya Vasylenko, who posted a fake about an 8-year-old "Ukrainian boy" Marc, who allegedly survived the Russian shelling. Although in fact this photo was published back in 2013 in Spain.

The number of military aircraft in Ukraine

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Number of airplanes Ukraine had and number of HIMARS launchers it received - both are well known.

I don't know about HIMARS, but the number of aircraft in the Armed Forces of Ukraine can vary greatly due to the repair and then secondary operation of previously damaged equipment, as well as due to new deliveries from Europe.

Media influence on wars

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

The most recent war started on false information that I remember was the invasion into Iraq, and it wasn't tabloids, it was bad intelligence. So I'd still say that your claim is absurd. If anything the UK/US yellow media tends to dig up shit that discredits their military, because again - catchy headlines, clicks, and revenue.

You can read about the Spanish-American war, as well as about Iraq.

Suicidal fans of atomic bombs in the Kremlin and not only

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

It'd be suicide though. I'm sure even the most deluded kremlinists can figure that one out, otherwise they'd have nuked Kyiv long time ago.

Are you sure that Russia will not use nuclear weapons? And then the American Minister Mayorcas is not entirely sure of this.

Code:

While the United States has expressed concern with Russian nuclear saber-rattling,
we do NOT anticipate that a nuclear detonation in Europe wouldhave any direct health
consequences on the homeland.

Source (p. 20)

Drunken troll on the throne

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Makes one wonder why he isn't in charge of the "special operation" then. Might have something to do with him being a drunk troll, although it's cute how you think that Medvedev was in charge of anything in 2008 when Putin let him sit on the throne for a few years.

I thought that there would be a wide discussion now, but you write to me about "drunk trolls" in response. For your information, two days ago Putin appointed Medvedev first deputy chairman of the military-industrial commission. And about the throne: real monarchs do not give it to anyone, even temporarily.

Oryx and modern opportunities to influence people's minds

Quote from: suchmoon on December 24, 2022, 06:43:55 PM

Their data is not based on opinion - they provide photo/video evidence, which is a lot more than you get from Konashenkov (or UA General Staff for that matter).

I don't want to say anything specific about Oryx, but do you really think that in our time it's impossible to forge photo and video evidence? If you think so, then watch a video about deep fakes.

Reply to LTU_btc

Which of the countries creates the most fakes about military operations?

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

Never said that. But Wester and Ukrainian is ages behind Russian in making of fakes.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in March 2022 published a video in low quality from the computer game Arma 3, declaring it as proof of the destruction of 4 Russian Ka-52 helicopters. Ukrainian Ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova was fired because she spread fake stories about massive sexual violence against Ukrainians by Russian soldiers. There were also soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Zmeiny Island, whom the Ukrainian government at first declared valiantly dead, but then it turned out that they were alive and surrendered. And this is just the tip of the iceberg of Ukrainian fakes. Enlighten me, have the Russian Ministry of Defense or key Russian media such as TASS, RIA, RG, Kommersant, IZ been caught doing something like this?

Again about bayraktars

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

So, ok, how many Bayraktars Ukraine had exactly and how many Russia destroyed? It would be interesting to hear real information from someone who post only verified information, no fakes and never makes mistakes. BTW, Russia loves to praise about their achievements, but there isn't many proofs about downed Bayraktars. There is maybe about 20 photos and videos with drones that were shot down. What is a bit strange. Meanwhile proofs about Orlan drones that were shot down comes almost on daily basis.

Orlan is a Russian relatively inexpensive drone. Its cost is tens of times less than that of a bayraktar, so there is not even much to refute here. Of course, they are shot down, but in terms of the amount it is not so expensive for the Russian army as it is for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with TB2.
The exact information on the number of Turkish TB2s is known only in the General Staff of Ukraine. But they won't publish it anyway. There are indirect signs that almost all Turkish drones have already been destroyed. This is evidenced by the lull in the media and also the reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which are also unloved by many here, which last reported about the TB2 they shot down in early October. And if we touch on the last mention of the Russian Ministry of Defense in general, then the mention of the Turkish UAV was a month and a half ago.

Nazi slogan

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

Happy that you liked my text under avatar. But FYI, this phrase have longer history than WWII. Anyway, nice interpretation of my minds, but I can respond you with your own words:

No need to lie about what I like. Your text under the avatar disgusts mentally normal people, because it is a Nazi slogan, and I don't like it at all.
It's disgusting that you joke about things like that.

Defence-ua.com

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

Since when Defence-ua.com become official source? I always thought that offical source is Ministry of Defence of Ukraine or General Staff of the AFU, but not some news website which focus on military topics.

Since Defense-ua.com has been the official website of the Ukrainian information company Defense Express, which publishes magazines on military topics and which participated in the implementation of information projects for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Many Ukrainian news sites refer to this resource (1, 2, 3). That is, as a source specifically for designating the Ukrainian position, it is quite suitable for itself.

Clown

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

Oh, alcochol additctive Dimon who is now playing role of clown Zhirinovsky who loves to make apocalyptic scenarios which never turn into reality. Is it really worth to pay attention to his words?

The Chinese leadership refused Zelensky, but accepted Medvedev to discuss, among other things, the situation in Ukraine, so in this case it was clearly demonstrated which of these two is perceived by the China as a more representative person to discuss important things, and who is a clown.

The essence of a neutral party

Quote from: LTU_btc on December 24, 2022, 11:38:08 PM

So, where is the problem exactly? Do you have proofs about them publishing fakes or only problem that you found is personalities that runs website?

The problem is that the resource may not publish fakes, but nevertheless, if the authors of the site are not neutral in relation to the parties to the conflict, then there is a possibility that they will publish information biased in relation to one of the parties.