Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 27, 2022, 06:08:16 AM

Quote from: MarjorieZimmermanGinger on December 27, 2022, 05:38:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally. Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

Everyone has no problem with borrowing, it's free to do for certain interests, especially the use of the money taken is placed in investing in bitcoin.

Yes.. some people do have a problem with the idea of borrowing money in order to invest in bitcoin. That's why I responded to you in that post in the way that I did - and as an attempt to clarify how loans could be used in such a way that is not as big of a "problem" as some folks, including you MarjorieZimmermanGinger, were generally describing the practice of borrowing to buy bitcoin.

The problem is when someone does not have a spare cost in the process of financing trips every month for the bank, and for me to avoid problems it is better not to lend money at the bank to make investments. There are many simple ways to participate in investing in bitcoin, one of which is to make purchases in stages according to your needs and not burden the capital we have.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

Quote from: MarjorieZimmermanGinger on December 27, 2022, 05:38:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes. I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake. And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing. Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

If the investment he made goes according to the target set, it will look good and will provide a solution to the loan he is doing, then what if bitcoin in the next two years is still in its current state. Let's say this is the worst assumption that we are trying to predict, even though the next two years may not be the case. I mean there are preventive actions that can be taken, if at any time the target set does not go according to the expected scenario.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

Quote from: MarjorieZimmermanGinger on December 27, 2022, 05:38:19 AM

The time accumulation the OP was trying to calculate seemed to follow a four year cycle, so he decided to invest and take the risk of borrowing money from a bank.

So what? The reason that he is doing it is a so fucking what? Do you think that a lot of us are not already familiar with the various theories why the BTC price might go up? And, yes it might go up, but it might not. That is part of the clarification that I was attempting to describe, so I am not sure why you are going back to the idea that the BTC price might go up. That's already known that it might go up, and it is already known that there are cycle theories and all kinds of BTC prediction frameworks, but just because there is a prediction framework, that does NOT guarantee that the BTC price is going to follow such BTC price prediction framework.

This relates to bitcoin being considered a speculative asset by most people, whatever the notion of linking the four year cycle with the many theories that try to be narrated, there can never be an accurate prediction of bitcoin's journey in the market. There are several patterns that cannot be separated from the journey of bitcoin, for example in the value of supply and demand, although other influences cannot be ignored either.

The most appropriate idea why bitcoin will rise again at a high price, because the price is speculative and the long journey that has been passed has given confidence to many people as the best investment and is an asset capable of maintaining value in the future.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

Quote from: MarjorieZimmermanGinger on December 27, 2022, 05:38:19 AM

Honestly, I would like to know how much the monthly fee must be paid to the bank by the OP?

Well, that's a fair statement/question. I had made a post on estimating the best case scenario if OP only has to pay interest, and then pay the principle at the end, but there could be other ways that the pay back terms are outlined by the bank. So far OP has not described that, as far as I can recall not seeing any such description of how the loan is meant to be paid back. Maybe OP can clarify the terms upon which he is suppose to pay back his loan?

I didn't get any clarification from the OP regarding this question, but with you I was involved in several discussions and subconsciously I also started to study some of the posts you made, thus clarifying some meanings that I still don't understand, and that's why I'm happy discuss with you freely, without worrying if my understanding is wrong in assuming.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

Quote from: MarjorieZimmermanGinger on December 27, 2022, 05:38:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 26, 2022, 09:32:17 PM

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose. Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

This is an important point from the discussion that has been going on, gambling is the same as investment even though the pattern of work is different, because gambling is also part of prediction and investment is not much different from that pattern. If gambling expects a win, then investment expects a profit.

I agree that bitcoin will again show resistance to recovery and bitcoin will slowly recover in the future, and the OP will most likely benefit from the investment he is running, as long as he can stay calm and not panic while waiting for a sustained recovery in the market.