You seem to be bouncing around a lot in your bitcoin price projection ideas shahzadafzal.  You had first asserted that there would be a new ATH in 1st quarter 2023.. and then now you are proclaiming that an ATH is not even likely in 2023 at all.   Strange that.

Personally, I believe that it is not very likely to get an ATH in the first quarter of 2023, and even it may well be a stretch to get an ATH in either the 2nd quarter or the 3rd quarter of 2023, so in that regard, I guess my framework would be that the longer the timeline, the more the odds for an ATH happening go up.

Yes, we are quite a stretch depressed from our November 2021 ATH of $69k, so in that regard, several resistance points (and even incentives to take profits on the way up) have likely established themselves between our current price and that $69k price.

Personally, I hate to lock-in too many specific bitcoin price performance frameworks that I expect to be possible to play out, so in that regard, I remain quite hesitant to be poo-pooing the various ways in which BTC's price performance can be manipulated in ways that those who are able to either manipulate or take advantage of situations are able to push the price in order to potentially reck the most other people.  

In other words, I am not going to write off 2023... and surely many of us likely realize that we don't even need any kind of new ATH to be in a profitable place.. including even getting stuck in the $20ks for the whole of 2023 is not really going to be very painful for a large number of the longer term HODLers who have already figured out a variety of ways that they need not sell more BTC, they may well be fine with just continuing to accumulate BTC at whatever price below the $69k price point.. so whether BTC price trickle upwardly or bounce around violently between $14k and $50k, there may not be too many significant and/or meaningful changes from the longer term HODLers.. except maybe the recent lesson of keeping lower and lower percentages of the overall BTC stash on exchanges and/or with third parties.

Btw since BitcoinBunny mentioned alpaca aka llama, I was poking this singing llama with that comment

So probably my BIGGEST gripe with your seemingly waffling around shahzadafzal is that in this most recent waffling post, you seem to be putting too much emphasis on the "it's not going to happen" proclamation when it is likely that the possible scenarios in bitcoinlandia are quite a bit broader than the seemingly specific assertions attempts that you have been making.