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at $410 we are resting delicately atop the mid-term support.

here we see a playout of scenario c, making new lows. this comes as a bit of a surprise, but the figures in the newsletter began to show bearish divergence earlier today, so we could have expected scenario b, at least.

-the daily UO data (figure 2) bounced off of the upper support

-while the 50-line showed a little support in the daily Stochastic RSI (figure 4), today's price action broke below it

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi3gStochRSIzi4gUOzvzl

-the 50-line in the 6-hour RSI (figure 5) completely rejected the bullish suggestion

-the moving support in the 6-hour MFI (figure 5) was broken as well

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zig6-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzi2gMFIzvzl

-the bullish divergence in the 6-hour Rate of Change Oscillator (figure 6) reversed

-and the 6-hour ADX shows a coupled momentum and negative directional line.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zig6-hourztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi3gROCzi4gADXzvzl

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For the short term, this support should be a particularly strong one, so i do not think that a sudden crash from here is necessarily likely. If we see a snap-back that produces a long wick on the 12-hour scale, it could suggest a larger consolidation pattern before a market decision. If we remain at these levels for most of that period, this would be extremely bearish. Each other time we tested this bottom-most resistance, there was a quick snap-back in the price on the 12-hour scale that was followed by a large bulltrap, but we are in the midst of an unprecedented downtrend* (*reference issue 31 March). If price breaks below this price point, then we will have broken out of the larger triangle and could see a mid-term capitulation to the targets in issue 31 March, page 25, second paragraph.

edit: I have just re-issued report 31 March to those of you who have not already received it.

--arepo