Quote from: arepo on April 10, 2014, 05:16:35 AM

For the short term, this support should be a particularly strong one, so i do not think that a sudden crash from here is necessarily likely. If we see a snap-back that produces a long wick on the 12-hour scale, it could suggest a larger consolidation pattern before a market decision. If we remain at these levels for most of that period, this would be extremely bearish. Each other time we tested this bottom-most resistance, there was a quick snap-back in the price on the 12-hour scale that was followed by a large bulltrap, but we are in the midst of an unprecedented downtrend* (*reference issue 31 March). If price breaks below this price point, then we will have broken out of the larger triangle and could see a mid-term capitulation to the targets in issue 31 March, page 25, second paragraph.

edit: I have just re-issued report 31 March to those of you who have not already received it.

--arepo

Good work, as always, arepo. It's interesting that you put in more technical terms something that I thought about in more intuitive ones: I think the most remarkable observation right now is how "normal" 400 suddenly looks.

A month, or two, ago, 400 had everyone salivating. Right now, we're creeping closer to it on pretty low volume. Will I buy at 400? Maybe, a bit. But nowhere near the enthusiasm I had for it myself back then.

Right now, 400 is protected somewhat by (in comparison to the total order book and average volume) some impressive buy orders around 400. But time works against the barrier, right now: we are in the process of feeling 400 is "normal", and if buying pressure doesn't majorly pick up until then, we will probably keep on testing it, and might eventually break it.