Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on Today at 03:10:27 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 10:44:44 PM

1 - will you take that bet?

Of course.

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 10:44:44 PM

2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

I wouldn't break my rule of betting money I couldn't care less about losing, but I would bet more than usual. Even if it's clearly EV+, because it's a single bet, we're relying on variance for the outcome, and that outcome can be a loss.

I think many people not in this forum will take this opportunity to bet on a higher reward same chance of winning. Just make an example, millions of people are addicted to the lottery even though they have a 1 /millions chance to win. As long as we know the consequences I think it won't be an issue if we lose in this one-time bet.

Quote from: pawel7777 on Today at 11:47:45 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on Today at 07:15:11 AM

...

I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV? One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.

I highly agree, in all honesty, people majority of people don't care about EVs may it + or -, what they have in their eyes is the price. If the price is huge no matter what is the chance, they will bet on it. After all, the bet wouldn't make them any poorer but the win will be a life changer for them (given in your example)