Quote from: pawel7777 on January 03, 2023, 04:37:44 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on January 03, 2023, 01:47:31 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 31, 2022, 11:47:45 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on December 31, 2022, 07:15:11 AM

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I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV? One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.

That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it.
Let's see:

You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is.

Again, what did we learn from such an exercise? What could one bet teach us if we took it? Could EV really be realized with just one bet then nothing? Nope.. That's why I'm saying it's missing the whole point of what Expected Value really is. The question in your exercise should be asking if we should bet the spot everytime even if we lose, which the answer is a resounding 'yes'.

Here's an explanation about EV with a couple of good examples.

https://upswingpoker.com/expected-value-ev-poker/

Memory loss? You've already replied to that post and now you're just repeating yourself bringing nothing new to discussion.

I replied to you here:

Quote from: pawel7777 on January 02, 2023, 01:26:33 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on January 01, 2023, 02:37:43 PM

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In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot. Lol. But let's be real here...

The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10.
The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it?

Estimating EV for a single bet helps you make decision on whether the bet is worth taking or not. I used two extreme examples above (of high and low EV bets) to prove a point. In making such decision, you will be trying to assess the EV value, whether you want to admit it or not. Even if you won't perform an actual EV calculation, you will still try to roughly assess on whether it's a good deal or not, which really no different.

Sure, EV for recurring bets will give you much clearer picture of expected long-term outcome (assuming unlimited bets and unlimited bankroll), but to discard the use of EV in any other situation is just dumb.

Here's an example of use of EV calculation for deciding on particular business decision: Link

You can apply that to any event where you can define the probability and an outcome result (incl. bets).

Again, I'm just saying that the premise in the OP saying to 'bet once then nothing' sets the noobs the wrong idea about EV. Sure it's the right spot to take but then what? What if the bet loses? What's the explanation that it was the right spot to take... Where's the realizing EV part?

Ok.. Maybe I jumped the gun too fast by saying the premise is wrong. It's more like it's incomplete. As you may already know, EV is only realized over a large sample. So yeah..