Quote from: Gachapin on January 05, 2023, 11:47:43 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on January 05, 2023, 11:30:19 PM

Quote from: Gachapin on January 05, 2023, 11:14:07 PM

But there needs to be an error margin: will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).

I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not.

In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations.

And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake.

Just an example:
many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake.
Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life. Where would I be now without making that "mistake"...

I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings.

Yep. You seem to be getting to the essence of the issue that anyone is going to face when making decisions that may or may not be mistakes. We do not necessarily know the outcome with certainty, and sometimes we will suffer from a bad result and other times we might end up having a windfall in terms of having the outcome that we expected but we had not realized at the time that we had made the choice that the outcome was really a low probability event.

Sometimes we might reinforce our gambling behaviors and continue to get good results, and sometimes it will come to bite us in the butt. Not everyone learns from mistakes, and there surely is going to be a lot of individual variance in regards to how many times they might need to get burned before learning - and there also might not even be a right answer - because maybe even a life full of mistakes might have a variety of positive outcomes weaved within, and surely there are consequences to actions and some of the available choices are going to be very limited for some folks as compared to others.

We might not even really be able to blame people for their own circumstances sometimes because we might not even know the various options that had been available or even if the loser might describe circumstances, we still might not be able to understand very well - including sometimes not always realizing various mistakes that each of us might make.. and whether we might have made the right choices, even after we had supposedly learned variations of those lessons earlier in life (or maybe just yesterday, I learned a lesson but I ended up repeating my mistake again.. maybe even hoping for a different result this time around? hahahahaha).

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 12:46:19 AM

In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those losses was an earthquake in Japan; he was an over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit.

Goldkingcoiner did the same thing.. accidentally bet 80x.. whoops..

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 02:16:53 AM

This has to be one of the most stable periods in Bitcoins existence. When FTX went down Bitcoin was at $16,850. Its now sitting at $16,815 and has barely had any movement since then. This signals to me that something big is going on behind the scenes. There has to be some large entity scooping up massive amounts of BTC right now. Maybe this is the reason for the Silbert delay. Seems like a good trade to follow

I don't tend to like simple explanations or "feelings" that something is going to happen.. blah blah blah. There's no there there.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:23:15 AM

A green colored comet is coming in 2023 (last time it was here was 50thou years ago).
It portends well, I would think Grin

On Feb 1 it would be closest to earth....
https://www.foxnews.com/science/green-comet-pass-earth-neanderthals-roamed-earth

Jupiter7? Is that you?