Quote from: Betwrong on Today at 09:58:47 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on January 14, 2023, 01:12:04 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on January 14, 2023, 08:44:12 AM

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~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

The part highlighted by you refers to relatively safe investment opportunities. For the 17% single dye roll - I honestly don't know, that's essentially why I started this topic. I feel like I'd probably go with ~25% of the amount defined as "amount I can afford to lose" for the purpose of gambling as defined in the post you've quoted, aka 25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget. There's not much math involved in determining that stake size, it just *feels* right, it won't hurt much if I (likely) lose but still gives a sense of taking a proper advantage of the positive EV bet.

The most "logic" approach would be to go with 9.5% calculated by using the Kelly criterion, but it's just seems a bit low.

Quote from: 348Judah on Today at 12:03:06 PM

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Quote from: AicecreaME on Today at 02:06:06 PM

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You two are just posting for the sake of posting, aren't you lol