Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 06:30:32 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 04:39:08 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 04:05:36 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 04:04:41 PM

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis Cheesy

Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc.

Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside.

Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information.
Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards.

As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied.
At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway Cheesy

It's true regarding time-wise, by the end of the year it did start to look more like the bottom was in despite being at the lows. You're completely right that a retracement down to $10K (or beyond $14K) would be much further than expected, so was always a bit skeptical. I think I was believing too much of the analysis based on inflation being bad for Bitcoin blah blah blah when in reality price has (so far at least) retraced much less in the 2022 bear market than in 2018 and 2014. So ironically, if the bottom is indeed in, Bitcoin has performed much better during the inflationary period than in previous bear markets without it.

I'm always aware that some bears still believe a new low is coming this year due to an incoming recession, which I do think is still possible, but to me it's becoming clearer that Bitcoin's price movements are more determined by it's own price action and 4-year cycle halvings, as opposed to any wider global economic sentiment. As I've always said, Bitcoin is only correlated to the stock market until it's not.