Quote from: porcupine87 on April 11, 2014, 12:20:14 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 10, 2014, 08:03:26 PM

Quote from: BitChick on April 10, 2014, 07:59:05 PM

Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?

I love a good sale! Grin

Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!

If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good Grin

Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower. So read this as long as you can. He will delete that post as soon as he can. Because this is a glorification thread. Critique is not allowed...

Microsoft is a great example given it close to monopoly status on desktop computer operating systems and office software. From 1987 to 2000 it followed an exponential growth model just like our model. This corresponds to the adoption of the desktop / laptop PC and is a classic S curve. When the adoption reaches close to the inflection point at 50% one gets a short continuation of the exponential followed by a long term crash, when the market realizes that the exponential cannot go on for ever. At this point the exponential approximation to the S curve breaks down. For Bitcoin I would expect this to occur somewhere between 100,000 USD to 1,000,000 USD, corresponding to about 50% market adoption. Take a look at Microsoft on a log scale from 1987 onwards. https://www.google.ca/finance?q=NASDAQ:MSFT&sa=X&ei=BmJHU9zHMPP7yAHvnIGoDA&ved=0CCoQ2AEwAA Facebook on the other hand is a very poor example because when it went public it was close to saturating its market, in effect leaving very little, if anything, on the table for the retail investor.

A very similar model can be used for RCA in the 1920s and 1930s with the stock continuing on an exponential path to its peak in 1929, while the adoption of radio was at the time reaching the inflection point of the S curve. Internet stocks peaked around 2000 while Internet penetration had reached around 50% in most of the developed economies. Again a blow off to a major top close to the inflection point of the adoption S curve.