Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on Today at 04:48:47 PM

... I have seen that the AI now It is widely used, of course some use some AI tools that allow them to make predictions, I don't know how accurate they are, but if we look at this data they can be much more precise, what I wonder is, it will be that in the future this will be ''Competition for betting platforms?'' Are we facing a possible formula to win all the time? even in sports?

Nah. As long as the casinos have mathematical advantage - AI won't be a problem. Plus, casinos could also use AI to determine the best rates etc and identify any vulnerabilities in their systems.

To come up with a good strategy, you don't really need AI (defined as something that can "learn" on its own), all you need is a good system of processing and analysing data (i.e. for the sports bets) to help you detect any positive value bets or arbitrage opportunities.

But you gave me the idea of just asking Chat GPT the question from the OP:

Prompt:

Quote

If I can bet on a single, non-repetetive dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if I win I get paid x12 of my stake (instead of x6).
What's the best way to determine a stake for such bet, expressed as a percentage of a bankroll

Chat GPT reply:

Quote

The best way to determine a stake for such a bet would be to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps to determine the optimal amount to bet in order to maximize your long-term growth rate of your bankroll. The formula is as follows: (bp - (1-b)(1/r)) / b, where b is the probability of winning the bet, p is the payout ratio, and r is the probability of losing the bet. In this case, b would be 1/6, p would be 12, and r would be 5/6. By plugging these numbers into the formula, you can determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet on a single roll of the die.

Well, we already know that.

Quote from: Eternad on Today at 04:52:50 PM

This topic already received tons of reply for a simple inquiry and most of the new discussion / new post is already off-topic to the one that OP is asking. Maybe its time to lock the thread since this topic already have 7 pager for a single question about betting strategy that already discussed on 1 to 2 page of this thread.

So you replied to say there are too many replies heh
I'm not locking it, it will die its natural death eventually. And there's nothing wrong with having side discussions, they could be interesting too.