Quote from: pawel7777 on January 17, 2023, 06:40:51 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on January 17, 2023, 09:58:47 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on January 14, 2023, 01:12:04 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on January 14, 2023, 08:44:12 AM

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~ But that definition and my risk tolerance would change for things like say investment opportunities with lower risk and positive expected returns. In such case I'd be potentially willing to risk any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life.

And what amount would you risk having only 17% chance to win?

I mean, since it's only one try, you will most likely lose it, right? I personally would risk "any amount that won't cause a massive disruption to my life", like you said, only if the multiplier was something like around 1,000x. Yes, I would try my luck then, even with an amount painful to lose, but for just potential 12x win, I wouldn't stake much.

The part highlighted by you refers to relatively safe investment opportunities. For the 17% single dye roll - I honestly don't know, that's essentially why I started this topic. I feel like I'd probably go with ~25% of the amount defined as "amount I can afford to lose" for the purpose of gambling as defined in the post you've quoted, aka 25% of my monthly "fun and entertainment" budget. There's not much math involved in determining that stake size, it just *feels* right, it won't hurt much if I (likely) lose but still gives a sense of taking a proper advantage of the positive EV bet.

The most "logic" approach would be to go with 9.5% calculated by using the Kelly criterion, but it's just seems a bit low.

This brings to my mind the following, there are some casinos that have investment options, you should know the Betfury casino well that a few years ago gave the option to buy the BFG, but at the same time caused quite a lot of returns in other crypto, including Bitcoin, what do you think about it? Of course, now we have seen that they have some problems, hence a negative opinion of them in their profile, but they are insisting that they open signature campaigns, that they give more movies to the tokens, but currently do you see that this will be profitable? In itself it is a strategy of juice, because in some games the BFG can be posted and apart from that, if they multiply, it gives more profitability, what I think they have failed is that they have not looked for a good exchange, in the long run I think this type of casinos which is a good betting strategy.

Quote from: pawel7777 on January 30, 2023, 05:39:14 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on January 30, 2023, 11:31:40 AM

I can imagine how to use AI for sports betting, but since Chat GPT's database is not updated regularly(in fact it's more than a year old, if I'm nit mistaken),we can't use the AI for that yet....

Correct, it cannot (yet) fetch any data from external sources, so it has to rely on the training data "fed" to him by developers. The most recent data is from Sep 2021.

Quote from: Betwrong on January 30, 2023, 11:31:40 AM

... But my question is, how, even theoretically, we can use AI for the games of chance? I mean, it can tell you what part of your bankroll to stake at once to, theoretically, last longer, but in reality your very first bet can be that with the highest multiplier possible, and no AI can tell you for sure that it won't happen.

It won't be very useful for games with mathematically determined odds, where the house has an edge. But (when it's able to collect data from external sources) it could be good for things like looking for positive EV opportunities on numerous different gambling sites (i.e. with high enough Jackpot and low number of players, the mathematical edge can sway on your side). But it'd probably most useful for gambling with "judgmental" odds, i.e. sports betting, where it could be looking for arbitrage opportunities (but I think we already have that for quite a while) or it could run an advanced analysis on teams performance, past results, patterns etc and could help you find good value bets (i.e. with pay-out rates higher than they should be). Then it could help you decide on the size of the wager for best long-term effects.

The problem is, if such tools will be available to players, bookies will also be using them in order to not get screwed.

Well, what I might think and what first occurs to me is that it is as you say, the way that they can use that data, they can get some statistics, which will reveal some type of probabilistic style data so that they can get closer to a prediction, this through the mathematical modeling of some tools, but of course, this is somewhat difficult, this reminds me of the time I saw in the statistics university, when I read in a book that its prologue said that the reason I was in that book was to win the lottery, but even so it is very difficult to get ahead in time, according to telecommunications with signals it is possible to get ahead in time, but only there, in terms of this things can get complicated.