Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on February 17, 2023, 04:12:58 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on February 15, 2023, 05:33:33 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 14, 2023, 10:23:37 PM

Martingale is a guaranteed winning strategy only under two small conditions: 1 - there are no bet limits, 2 - you have an unlimited amount of money.

That is false

No, it's not.

It is, unless you call winning to be willing to bet billions to win the initial bet a winning strategy. In other words, you bet $1 initially and as you encounter losing streaks you have to keep doubling and doubling ad infinitum because the longer term the more likely you are to encounter extremely improbable losing streaks.

In your mental experiment you are missing something else: infinite time.

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 15, 2023, 09:59:33 PM

You don't say! Really?! Thanks for your wisdom and for letting us know. Keep it up!

Same here, keep us up to date with your genius thought experiments.

Getting lost in pure theory when we talk about these topics might not make any practical sense. You are of course right when you say that infinite time is required as well, but in the real world time won't be the issue. I guess you can role the dice several thousand times a day if you want.

I just did a quick google search and although I can't verify, this source says that 32 times consecutive words were recorded in an American casino.

Now if we take an initial amount of $1, you would have to bet 4.294.967.295 billion in order to win back that initial amount. I would say if you are a guy with deep pockets and you have a very unlucky day, you could be sitting at that table for just 60 minutes in order to try and win you dollar back by placing 4.3 billion on a color! Cheesy

My advice would be to just play Mega Millions: the chance of winning is 0,000000330496188800575% whereas the chance of losing 32 times in a row in roulette is 0,000000009697304376323%

Some interesting numbers!

What you more often read are losing streaks of around 15. I think that's like a decade ago and I played for cents with a friend just to try it out and we had something like 11 or 12 consecutive red or so against us. But it was an online casino and we thought we just got scammed Wink