Quote from: Mpamaegbu on Today at 07:43:15 AM

Quote from: kiddex on February 08, 2023, 11:57:16 PM

Ok so this is a little down the road from here but assuming after the next halving and bitcoin goes into another bull run, when would be a good time to sell?

In all honesty, no one can pinpoint the exact date when the bear will come upon the market. However, we can predict the year expectedly anyway; nonetheless with the mindset that we are also in a highly speculative industry where anything is possible. The way I like to judge my prediction is to expect the bear season two years from every Bitcoin halving year. I've taken this into cognizance from my two post halving experiences and it seems to work pretty well. For instance, from my speculation based on what I just explained, the next bear after the coming halving in 2024 will begin in 2026. It happened on 2018. Repeated itself in 2022 too.

By that logic it means a year from the halving is also a bull market and we are out of the bear market right now and the bull market is ahead of us. That is basically the way we can calculate the cycles, the first year of bull market its going up, but not insanely high, just recovering from the bear market, the second year, 12 months after the halving, we start to have a bull market and eventually reach the ATH that we set, and then 24 months after the halving we are in a bear market and the cycle keeps going like that without a stop.

I believe that we are out of the bear market zone now, but not into the full-swing bull market zone just yet, but with time, we are getting there next. Exact market reversal time is highly unpredictable hence not bothering and holding across 2 or more halving event will get big profits for sure.