Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
dragonvslinux
on 23/02/2023, 12:27:01 UTC
⭐ Merited by d_eddie (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
seems some people love to sell cheap...



IF it would be a straight buy/sell market, yes.
But with all those derivatives, short timeframe ups and downs may just be the results of manipulations, and of course, it seems fun for some tools people to hunt stop losses and liquidize leveraged trades. Zooming out gets rid of this noise in the charts, though.

Remember not to accumulate on not dips   Tongue Wink or to not DCA  Cheesy

I think besides all manipulation there is always a certain part of "real" selling/buying going on.  Not every market participant is someone manipulating with deep pockets ...

Personally I still think a lot of the big swings that happens (rather than liquidation hunts) occurs due to OTC prices and its trades and how it can directly affect the spot market, somewhat unintentionally.

For example imagine when spot price was $17K but OTC was nearer $18K and an institution wants to buy 1,000 BTC, so what do they do? They buy say 800 OTC at a premium, then buy 200 on spot, pushing the price to $18K. Very much aware that if there are more OTC buyers, and clear lack of willing sellers, then the next big buyer will do the same if OTC prices are to maintain a premium. Some might call that manipulation, but I'd just consider it smart buying, that's very much determined by lack of OTC sellers (whale sellers let's say) rather than some personal desire to manipulate the spot price.

At least this is what I saw happen in 2019 from $4K to $5K, so wouldn't be surprised it's what happened from $17K to $21K, simply because the move was so strong at the time, as well as completely defying any resistance to the upside, given how much volume had been trading in that area as previous support that failed to act as new resistance. This might seem like an unlikely theory, but there are at least 2,000+ addresses with 1K coins, no doubt many more who have 1K+ spread across various wallets (old miners for example). They also ironically either stopped their aggressive selling since March last year once price reached $17K, or breaking up of coins, while addresses with 100 coins increased by 300 to 16K. So make of that what you will.

I say a similar dynamic also occurred in 2019 as it was the 1K addresses that increased by 300 as price dropped to $3.2K and continued their accumulation from there. This also remains the same $ value range of $20-30m+ buys compared to today's 100+ coin buyers. Therefore if the whales and humpbacks determine most of the markets moves, even the sharks now to some degree, then I doubt most is being done on spot market, as without building buy/sell walls, the slippage on Coinbase for example is +/-10% for buying/selling 1K coins.

If I had to otherwise guess why price is correcting, the OTC premium has faded away (satisfied buyers) over the past month with prices at $23K+. So it might take a further correction to find new buyers.