Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 28, 2023, 02:17:40 AM

[edited out]

F.u. status is a relative term for sure. I took your entry-level f.u. status value of $2M as a reference, which I guess is a pretty comfortable amount of wealth for the average someone to be able to live without having to be a wage-slave, assuming one is in a wage-slave-type job

I would consider that getting to fuck you status is not necessarily any kind of statement about whether or not work is oppressive, but instead to suggest that fuck you status allows a choice about whether to work for financial reasons in order to continue to live more or less at the same (or similar) standard of living that you are accustomed and/or that you are willing to adapt to once you enter into that fuck you status.. .. so that work becomes completely optional in terms of financial considerations.. without fooling ourselves if we were to go into supposed fuck you status and have to come back out of it because we had failed to sufficiently plan for inflation and/or other future matters that affect an ability to sustain fuck you status. Sure, there could be some truly outlier situations that were not foreseeable that might cause having to go back into working in order to sustain oneself.. and from my point of view that should be totally an aberrant outlier situation rather than failing to adequately plan for various extreme contingencies.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

-- there are exceptions, where a job can be quite pleasurable, in which case the corn f.u. amount can serve as a backup for when things at work turn sour.

You seem to be referring to situations in which someone might be forced into retirement or going into fuck you status due to somewhat hostile or unworkable circumstances.. and surely, I would not deny that there could be some situations in which some of us might find ourselves 50% or more towards reaching our definition of entry-level fuck you status, and we could still find ways to still enter into fuck you status at a rate that ends up being way less than we had been previously planning... Nothing wrong with that, even though maybe the first 5-10 years in fuck you status might be a kind of frugal fuck you status.. but still I would think that we may well want to make sure that our fuck you status entrance is sustainable before entering into it full time .. but surely there could be quite a few variations in terms of different kinds of circumstances that guys/gals will find themselves and to be able to individually determine if their situation is workable in terms of actually entering into fuck you status or maybe they might want to stay in the workforce a bit longer in order to assure an adequate financial cushion prior to entering into fuck you status in a more full-time kind of a way.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Then there's also the issue of medical insurance and other state benefits and societal issues relating to having a job vs. being unemployed.

I don't have any problem with including some various state benefits as part of any package that we might consider to be part of our circumstances and/or cashflow considerations while we might be in a permanent sustainable fuck you status or maybe as part of a transition into fuck you status, and of course, any of us should attempt to have our bitcoin stash as a kind of empowerment in which we might well understand/appreciate that all or some of those government benefits might go away in part or might go away completely. I doubt that it would be practical to hold ourselves up to such "high standards" that we might consider that we don't need, want or will not calculate those as part of whatever income that we might get while we are in fuck you status, or prior to entering into fuck you status.

I remember that at some earlier date, maybe a year ago or more, I had attempted to grill you in regards to your assessment of medical benefits, and whether you perceived that the receipt of medical benefits or the ability to continue receiving medical was a hinderance to your own personal calculations regarding how practical it may be to enter into fuck you status in an earlier time than you might have had otherwise been considering to be feasible.

For sure, there is no need for you to disclose very much in terms of OPSec, yet many of us likely realize that in the USA, medical costs are extremely a high possible portion of any cost that any of us might need to consider whether considering them only on our own behalf or if we might include the medical benefits of some dependents.. and whether or not we might feel that we do not really want to get too attached to any wifey and we might believe that we can be sufficiently satisfied by the H part of your later referred to consumption potentials, there may be ways in which legacy concerns still may well end up becoming contemplated.. and perhaps some of that might be included within prior to enter fuck you status contemplations but then could become an additional cost that arrives after fuck you status that becomes more in line with dependent and/or life partner rather than H status.. even it there might not have been those earlier intentions in regards to kinds of costs, kinds of lifestyle and kinds of values and/or priorities that could end up changing through the years.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

In any case, $2M can provide a sense of freedom and independence, to a greater or lesser extent, depending on country of residence, spending habits, addictions to LHB-type goods and services, etc.

I believe it is a good starting point in terms of a default presumption, in terms of talking about entry-level thresholds, and of course, even if we might try to hold the number constant in terms of today's dollars, we also likely realize that there are guys/gals who could get by comfortably with 1/10 that level or some guys/gals believe that they need 10x that level, even if we are to presume holding the dollars constant for our discussion purposes here in our back and forths.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Another important thing to consider is Bitcoin volatility and global events that can potentially add outliers to the overall "it's going up forever, Laura" trend. A local deviation of sufficient magnitude and duration, combined with lack of preparedness for DOWNities and absence of some fiat buffering (when in Rome, do as Romans do) could force one to liquidate more corn than originally planned, thus shortening the f.u. time horizon and weakening one's position in relation to self-sufficiency.

You likely realize that I have frequently argued that using the 200-week moving average should sufficiently and adequately account for such extremes, but then surely having 9 months in which the BTC price has been below the 200-week moving average and even spending a number of weeks more than 35% below the 200-week moving average can bring some pause in terms of considering whether the 200-week moving average is even enough of a bottom indicator or whether some other extreme lower indicator might need to be used... Personally, I am not really that close to giving up on the 200-week moving average, even though I understand that it is problematic that we have already spent so much time below it, and we are still right around 6.5% below it as I type this post... ..

....

.... yet are either of us lacking in confidence in bitcoin in such a way that we are not able to figure out some formulas in which we might end up selling more BTC during the UPPlty periods in order to somewhat over prepare ourselves for the extreme DOWNity periods? Even though I am still working out these matters, I am not feeling exactly vulnerable.. and perhaps if any of us (including you) feel somewhat vulnerable, then maybe that is a sign that you might need to wait one more cycle in order that even during extreme downities, you still might be 10x to 15x or even more UP, so you are not really worried about if you might have to sell some cornz below the 200-week moving average or whatever other indicator that you might end up using as your bottom guide (that we end up going below).

By the way, around 2 or 3 years ago.. it may have been in 2019, I had already decided for myself that I would work formulas out to be able to sell BTC at whatever price that I wanted.. so long as the BTC price does not go back below $5k.. So, I kind of put that "somewhat artificial" line in the sand for my own personal circumstances, that I am not selling any BTC below $5k, but as long as the BTC price is above $5k, then more or less (within reason) I am going to do whatever I like in terms if I might have to sell some BTC or whatever.. and of course, following Gresham's law to sell other less valuable assets (which is everything else) first... but still even $5k would be at least 5x profits for me.. as long as I am keeping with my theoretical framework in which I continue to consider my average cost per BTC to be right around $1k.

In any event, I surely doubt that we are going into the 4 digits again.. but surely we have to be prepared for anything financially and psychologically and still put our own systems (and perhaps limitations and guidelines) into place in regards to what we believe is acceptable BTC portfolio management for our own situation (and surely no one wants to get mindrusted.. probably even mindrust did not want that).

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

As things currently stand, entry-level f.u. status is attained at a value of 80 BTC (upper fish-level rank). This looks quite bleak for Bitcoin noobs and other low-ranking species such as shrimps and lower (< 1 BTC), but they should not fall into the "too expensive" trap. Crabs and octopuses (1-50 BTC) are in a better position, and should reach f.u. status within the next 5-10 years (conservative estimate).

Of course, newbie nocoiner, precoiners and/or low coiners have to figure out a BTC accumulation and/or maintenance strategy that works for them based on their own situation, and bitcoin was never likely a get rich quick scheme, even though it did end up getting some folks pretty rich, pretty fast, yet there is still a need to figure out a BTC accumulation and/or maintenance approach that accounts for various other aspects of their personal financial/psychological status.. and actual BTC performance (or expected performance) is ONLY one of the considerations..

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Aiming to own 1 whole BTC is a healthy and realistic target for noobs who are employed and relatively healthy financially. $24k is not a great amount and I urge all such noobs who have this kind of cash in a bank account to buy 1 BTC ASAP, put it in a wallet they control and forget about it (no trading!).

I likely would not make such a recommendation, unless I were to already know that the person had something like a $240k quasi-liquid investment portfolio and they considered that 10% is their BTC accumulation goal. Of course, since about mid 2020, I have been starting to consider that a 1% to 25% allocation to bitcoin would be a sufficient and adequately prudent starting point, so 25% would be on the more aggressive side, so in the case of getting to whole coiner status then such person who has determined to allocate 25% to bitcoin might have had an existing investment portfolio with nearly $100k in value...

I don't mean to be unnecessarily combative, but I also don't consider that there is much of any importance in having to reach whole coiner status unless either the financial and psychological circumstances already allow for it, and surely once anyone gets beyond beginner status, then the can go outside of my 1% to 25% starting out BTC allocation recommendations.. and of course, anyone who actually studies into the bitcoin matter and might ONLY have $24k cash in an account and they do not have any other investments (but they otherwise have their cashflow and living expenses - including emergency fund covered), then of course, they might decide to be aggressive in terms of causing their ONLY investment to be BTC. .and they no longer have that cash sitting there (and likely doing nothing but losing value over the coming years).

By the way, I did have some kind of a similar situation in around late 2014, when i had "accidentally" found out that a person that I knew had around $50k in cash in a bank account that was ONLY earning around 1% interest (I cannot recall the rate at the time). I gave that person a lecture regarding how dumb that it seemed to me to have so much money that was not doing anything.. and that amount was likely close to 2x of that person's then yearly income... anyhow, the person did end up listening to me, in part, and may well have bought somewhere around $4k or so in bitcoin with that money.. I cannot remember the details.. and I was not very involved in hand-holding beyond lecturing when I had found out about it... Kind of my somewhat passive aggressive way.. including my acknowledgement that people are going to do whatever the fuck they want, and I am not going to take responsibility for them, even though I might call some people dumb sometimes, if I find out that they are doing something that I consider to be dumb (or doesn't seem to be too smart)... but people don't really listen.. and if they do frequently they won't admit it. I am similar to that too. We all get kind of stubborn in our patterns.. including that there can be some secrecy in regards to financials, and surely I am not really wanting to know too much about the specific's of people's financials if they are not really voluntarily disclosing.. but when we are talking about bitcoin, sometimes those kinds of topics end up forcing to come to the surface.. even when uncomfortable on all sides.. whether in true life or even over the intertubes.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

In the next 10 years I see whole-coiners entering f.u. status too. Yes, this is Bitcoin, and no, this is not financial advice, but I wish I had that advice when I started in 2015...

What would you have wanted some supposedly "trusted" person to advise you? Something like:

"go buy 80 BTC you dumb twat. It ONLY going to cost you less than $300 at this time, which is about $24k, and you have enough to afford it.., so go out there and make the purchase, and perhaps in 8-10 years, 80BTC is going to bring you to fuck you status."

By the way, probably in 2015, we were still considering entry-level fuck you status to have had been in the ballpark of $1 million (in 2015 dollars), but these days, we surely are considering $2 million to be entry-level fuck you status in today's dollars... so yeah, $24k was worth more in 2015 than it is today.. 2015 dollars are only worth around $0.50.. so maybe these days, you have to tell someone to spend $48k in order to be spending the equivalent of $24k in 2015...

That inflation between 2015 and now (and especially more known and knowable after March 2020), is part of the reason why these days as a kind of default position, I frequently tell people to: "get the fuck started buying BTC and start by buying $100 per week in bitcoin and work out the details as you go along", and in 2015, I was telling people: "get the fuck started buying BTC and start out by buying $10 per week in bitcoin and work out the details as you go along." I also told them that I am not responsible for anything that they choose to do, but they better get the fuck started sooner rather than later.. #justsaying.. something like that.. as long as anyone seemed willing to listen.. some people were not willing to listen.. just like today, lots of people not willing to listen... so I only say what peeps are willing to listen to and if they seem to be somewhat interested and interactive on the BTC topic.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

tl;dr: Double-digit coiners are already in the rocket, they can either HoDL, or BTFD/DCA.

I agree. Double digits is a great foundation.

Remember a few months ago, Philip had said something like 100 BTC is not enough, and those with 100 BTC better sell some BTC and they better get into cash and earn some yield with IBonds.. blah blah blah.. .. and holy fucking shit.. now versus a few months ago is not really very much different if we look at the 200-week moving average.. and so 80-100 BTC has been in the already fuck you status levels for about the past year or even a bit longer (even though BTC prices have not really been very cooperative in the past 9 months or so).

but yeah, I agree that it does not hurt to keep accumulating, but if someone is already at double digits in terms of their bitcoins, they have a decently good foundation that may well get them to entry level fuck you status (if we are presuming $2 million as the current threshold) within the next 5 years.. but could take a bit longer depending on specifics.. and surely it would always be good to be engaging in strategies in which the BTC either continues to build or at least does not go below certain thresholds that each person determines for himself/herself .. which is just getting to the idea of trying NOT to be shaving too much BTC off of your portfolio until getting into a pretty solid situation in which fuck you status is in sight within timelines that are personally acceptable.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Noobs should immediately start accumulating as much as possible, ideally reaching 1 BTC (or more, of course).

For sure, the more that can be accumulated the better.. and be as aggressive as you can without getting reckt.. There are some folks who can easily afford $250 or more per week, but there are some folks who might really be stretching matters to accumulate $10 worth of bitcoin per week.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Always have a backup plan and always be prepared for DOWNities.

That would be don't invest more than you can lose.. which should never involve ending up overstretching oneself in order that s/he has to sell BTC at any time that is other than of his/her own choosing... so yeah, buy BTC using DCA, Lumpsum and buying on dips, so each of those strategies would be good for any BTC accumulation strategy.. including that there could be some times that HODL is necessary if you run out of money when the BTC price is going down further than expected.. .which may well happen from time to time.. especially as anyone is getting used to attempting to follow a sufficiently aggressive and assertive approach that does not go overboard in terms of causing that person to get reckt or otherwise have to sell BTC at a time that is other than his/her complete choosing.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on March 01, 2023, 09:01:59 AM

Buy when you can, sell when you must.

Jimbo? Is that you?

That seems to be the strategy that applies once you either get to higher levels of maintenance stage in your BTC holdings and/or into liquidation stages of your BTC holdings, but not as applicable when in BTC accumulation stages. I surely do not suggest any selling of BTC at all while in accumulation stages.. especially the earlier of accumulation stages, so selling is not a method for accumulating.. and anyone who might establish various personal accumulation strategies, there are a variety of ways in which such accumulation strategies can be formulated whether it is to target 1% to 25% of your investment portfolio, or to establish a certain amount of BTC, even if BTC might end up constituting some higher portion of your overall investment portfolio... and surely even someone who might start out with a decently sized investment portfolio (even $100k to $500k), it could take him/her 1 or two years or even longer to get the BTC portion allocated to the target level, and someone who might start out with hardly any income could take 10 to 20 years before really feeling that his/her BTC is getting him/her to the place that s/he wants to be in terms of being able to potentially retire early or to supplement other cashflows, and surely there are folks who take 30 to 40 years to reach fuck you status (or some kind of comfortable retirement situation), and some people do not even make it to such status, even if it seems that they did everything right.. and BTC could possibly reduce the amount of time by half or even more, but likely ONLY if being prudent and aggressive in regards to how to manage BTC accumulation in personally tailored ways that do not devolve into gambling or overdoing it so much that there is not sufficient guards in place to protect principle (also known as employing decent risk management strategies).