Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign. The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%
Unfortunately 26K wasn't even endangered once and now we have some bearish signs. This changes quite a bit the probabilities. I must add also that I have in mind Skew which makes probability predictions for some futures exchanges.
Also, I have to say that many times in Bitcoin's history predictions with less than a 1% probability came to reality. Check out this diagram made in early 2019 when the price was about 4K.
The chances for reaching 10K in June were very slim, but it happened anyway and we even were close to 14K! Can Bitcoin do a similar feat again in 2023? We shall see. As a ratio from the bottom however, we are at 1.43, which translated to 2019 would be 4.4K. Personally, I find it a bit worriesome that we are having such a strong resistance at 25K, with a still existing danger of invalidating the Jan-Feb bull run. So, I guess now the odds for the top until the end of June are:
41K - 48K - 4%
31K - 40K - 10%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 50%
Anything else in in the 1% margin. But anything can change instantly if we break the resistance 25-26K or there is some major good news.