Quote from: ivomm on Today at 12:02:55 PM

Quote from: ivomm on February 18, 2023, 02:35:45 PM

This week's return to the bull mode was a bit surprising and a very positive sign. The confidence is slowly returning and for now there is no indication that some FTX @ Aldmeda like companies are manipulating the market as in 2022. It seems that 2019 mini bull is repeating in 2023. If all goes according to plan the top should be 48K somewhere in late March or April. To this number I've arrived in 4 different ways - 2 extrapolations from 2 points, 1 historic top resistance and 1 purely psychological factor - 50K! And if it is a short lived peak as in 2019 then the price will return in the upper 30K. After that it may come back to the lower 30K or even below that, before the start of the real bull in 2024. Having said that, I don't see it as the most probable scenario. IMO the chances for the top of this bull until May 2023 are:
41K - 48K - 15%
31K - 40K - 30%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 20%
However, if the bull market is confirmed next week and we break 26K, the prob. chart will look like this:
41K - 48K - 30%
31K - 40K - 45%
26K - 30K - 25%

Unfortunately 26K wasn't even endangered once and now we have some bearish signs. This changes quite a bit the probabilities. I must add also that I have in mind Skew which makes probability predictions for some futures exchanges.

Also, I have to say that many times in Bitcoin's history predictions with less than a 1% probability came to reality. Check out this diagram made in early 2019 when the price was about 4K.

The chances for reaching 10K in June were very slim, but it happened anyway and we even were close to 14K! Can Bitcoin do a similar feat again in 2023? We shall see. As a ratio from the bottom however, we are at 1.43, which translated to 2019 would be 4.4K. Personally, I find it a bit worriesome that we are having such a strong resistance at 25K, with a still existing danger of invalidating the Jan-Feb bull run. So, I guess now the odds for the top until the end of June are:
>48K - 1%
41K - 48K - 4%
31K - 40K - 10%
26K - 30K - 35%
25K - 26K - 50%
But everything can change instantly if we break the resistance 25-26K or there is some major good news.

Wow. I am o.k. with your analysis, but you surely come off as a bit of a scared puppy.. to be wanting to compound one negative scenario after another and seemingly want to overly pee pare ur lil selfie for both downity and less likely scenarios... and I know that you are not presenting downity scenarios, but you are showing that you want to reduce your UPpity numbers in quite extreme ways because why? Scaredy cat? hahahahahaaha

Sure there is no problem in terms of being prepared for worser case scenarios, but still problematic to have the worser case scenarios as a kind of base case.

But whatever, you do you if you want to keep a decent amount of fiat (just in case sub $10k comes.. and I know that you are not really saying that), when you probably should be spending more time not putting so much efforts into mindpower, energies and likely finances into such negative scenarios.. and sure such downity scenarios still might happen, but still... I am just saying what is my impression.. even though I do appreciate that you are assigning somewhat realistic variables to UP.. .

And, even on a personal level, I have trouble figuring out how to assign up versus down and also putting a timeline on such assignments because I have a hard time concluding that we are out of the bear market until getting significantly above the 200-week moving average, and I am not even sure how to contemplate such variation of scenarios without us actually getting above the 200-week moving average an staying above it, which has not really happened in any kind of signifiant and meaningful way in the last 9 months... so yeah, BTC prices between the 200-week moving average and the 100-week moving average for a while would at least be helpful for me to start to think that maybe we are out of the bearmarket... so anyhow, I better stop, since the more I type, the more I am starting to consider that your numbers might be reasonable, even though my first impression is to call you a scaredy-cat who seems to want to jump negatively at any sign that UPpity might not be continuing in the short term... and then in recent times, especially the last year or so, you seem to overly assign negative long term ramifications to that.

Quote from: Macadonian on Today at 01:43:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:29:13 AM

I gotta pace myself... a self-directed mandate

I do not like this version of JayJuanGee Cheesy

Personally, I have always been quite fond of "self-directed" mandates. But, hey maybe that's just me? I get kind of stubborn sometimes, especially when I look at how self-directedly irresponsible I was during various times in that period... and some of that self-directed stubborness had gotten me into various pickles... and showing some of the various risk-loving aspects of my character that are not as pronounced (and least in terms of how to treat the corpus - meat wagon) in these days in contrast to the senses of immortality that existed during younger times, relatively speaking. #justsaying.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 01:44:22 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 01:39:04 PM

[edited out]

Those charts a big part of your life?

Do you really think they help you calculate what will happen next?

Or are they a way to cope because "the future is not ours to see Que Sera Sera"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

Oh gawd Philip. Roll Eyes

You might need to consider using some charts yourself.. maybe you might be able to learn a wee bit in that seemingly ongoing stubborn noggen of yours.. hahahahaha no homo.. , so that you might be better able to assign probabilities to various possible scenarios rather than to get all worked up on one angle versus another and then seeming to ongoingly misallocate resources in accordance with your getting caught up into those wrong and even foolish angles of analysis.

I am not even suggesting that I agree with dragonvslinus in a majority of cases (actually, I am not sure how much I agree with him, but I recall that I used to disagree with him a lot more when he used to be more bearish.. but either he has come around or I have come around.. I am not sure?), and sometimes, I do consider that he is putting too much weight into aspects of the predictive capabilities of his charts (and likely limitations in regards to what could happen) based on such charting techniques.