Thanks for the feedback.

I've updated electricity cost to $0.04/kW h and RIO to 730 days. It made value $20K less, but still above the price.

Daily fluctuation happens because for the difficulty change formula uses last 6 months, which is not fixed amount of periods to take into account (It may be 12,13,14).
I may need to adjust formula to take fixed amount of periods to prevent those fluctuations.

Value&Premium in your terms is something different from Graham/Warren's Value Investing.

Also my idea not to calculate some figure to tell miners it's attractive or not to invest in mining, but to tell what's the current difference in production costs to current market price, which may be used a signal to buy/sell.

Quote from: franky1 on March 17, 2023, 01:01:42 AM

value is below market. premium is above market
it appears your numbers for 2022-23 are average not value

your formulae numbers are subjective
8 cent electric of a 12 month ROI

hmm

my numbers are
from efficient asic farming mining in low electric of $18k for this fortnights mining rate
to an inefficient asic hobby mining in high electric of $118k for this fortnights mining rate

which is an average of ~$68k
value: 18k
average: 68k
premium: 118k

as for your numbers for 2018.. that is way above premium for that period even for high electric regions

my math is based on a 2 year ROI
because industrial mining farms buy hardware that lasts 2 years and electric contracts that are bought for upto 2 years so the number of coins earned over a 2 year period become the math.

and industrial electric is cheaper then $0.08 at $0.04
and the hobbiest is electric is more then $0.08 at upto $0.48

..
that said you have a good bases of looking beyond the markets for underling value. but your math is a lil out, compared to rational expectations of what real mining farms do

and another hint. the math you show saying how you are using 1 year measures of coins earned. and then 6 months and then fortnightly difficulty changes.. yet your charts changes daily so your not exactly sticking to the difficulty steps of one change a fortnight. using average hashrate of that fortnight

most miners dont account for costs on the daily. they take the monthly costs or the 2 yearly costs and compare it to coins earned over those averages