Quote from: Sayeds56 on Today at 10:35:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 19, 2023, 07:33:49 PM

Part of the problem that I have been finding for several years, is that there are a lot of folks who seem to want to tout these ideas of correlation, which yeah they are likely quite true in the short-term, but the misleading aspect is that it ONLY takes a short-period of non-correlation for those who had been relying on the correlation assertion to get fucked by their own reliance - so I personally believe it is way better to start from a premise that they are not correlated.. rather than starting from a premise that they are.. and in that regard, I hardly give a ratt's ass if BTC prices and equities (stock markets) are correlated 95% of the time, and then 5% of the time, BTC ends up doing a 10x jump in comparison to stocks/equities, and then thereafter BTC ends up going back to being correlated for the next 3-4 years until it is not correlated again for another 10x jump.. . You can look back at the BTC charts and you can see those kinds of patterns of mostly correlation except for those short-periods in which the BTC price jumps up 10x, 100x or whatever, and then comes back down.

. so the fact of the matter would be that anyone who had been largely relying on correlation gets fucked during each of those periods of non-correlation because they might 1) fail to invest enough into bitcoin, or 2) they might sell too much too early.. part of the reason that bitcoin is really early in its adoption levels, and you get all kinds of folks thinking that they are smart when they sell on the way up but then the BTC price does another 5x to 10x after they sold.

You are absolutely right that this weak correlation can be misleading for some forks as it can impact their decision making to invest in Bitcoin during the dip. Starting from the premise of non-correlation, as it will force investors to examine Bitcoin buying opportunity on its own merits rather than simply assuming that it will move in lockstep with other asset.

Amidst the successive collapse of Banks in USA ,there is widespread speculation in social media that Bitcoin is likely to reach $1 Million dollar mark in the next 3 months, please advise your expert opinion on this matter. Thanks.

https://bitcoinist.com/former-coinbase-cto-places-2-million-bet-that-bitcoin-will-hit-1-million-in-90-days/

I think that bitcoin reaching $1million in 90 days is less than 1%, but sure of course, I could be wrong, and the percentage could be higher than that..... but if you even think that there are 10% odds, that seems loonie to me... Of course, anything can happen, but it seems best to attempt to stick with more likely scenarios rather than crazy ass scenarios that might also presume some kind of an armagaedon happening.. .. because if you think about matters, the whole world would really be fucked if BTC prices were to go up that fast.

In December 2021, I had provided some estimates of time and price, and for sure whenever we are attempting to combine both time and price we have to combine the probabilities, so it becomes even less probable to combine the two..

So for example, if we really could know that there was a 50% chance that BTC prices would peak in 90 days, then we would have to lower our percentages based on the various numbers that we might assign to the peak, and if we want to attempt to capture the whole of the spectrum, we have to assign values to various points on a spectrum.. and the totality of the spectrum (of adding up 100%) should account for up, down and sideways.

On an individual level, each of us needs to be careful not to get caught up in such hype assertions, and we have to personally attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, to be able to buy more BTC if it goes down and also have plans for what are we going to do if the BTC price goes up or sideways, and likely our plans would be different if we assign higher probabilities to various events, but if we are not being very realistic about the percentages that we assign, then we are likely to either suffer or to not benefit.

Don't get me wrong in terms of my seeming conservativism, because I do believe that there are ways to plan for outrageous scenarios, and I do believe that it is better to plot out some kind of plan in the event that outrageous scenarios were to happen in either direction which may well include selling some BTC if the price were to go up really quickly like that... but I surely cannot tell you how much I believe would be prudent to sell, and we are getting off of the topic of this thread.. with such fantasies. .that's for sure, but we are not really off of the topic of this thread to figure out personal strategies how to plan for the possibility for outrageous events, and if the event seems outrageous, and if you believe that it is 5% likely to happen, then you should not put anymore than 5% of your preparations into such an event.