Both conditions will not be met in my opinion so chance for Lazio to be champion is zero, risk for Napoli to lose it is zero too. To conclude, Napoli will be champion of Serie A 2022 - 2023.
Because Lazio will not be able to win all their 11 games and Napoli will be able to win at least 5 more games that is a max required win matches to take the title if Lazio win all 11 games. If Lazio win less than 11 games, Napoli will need to win less than 5 more games to be a new champion.
I'm sure the analysis is good on the possibilities that can still be expected, but I'm pretty sure there aren't many opportunities that Lazio can take advantage of because Napoli in this case are very close to securing the title.
Okay, let's return to the topic of the Champions League, hopefully the discussion isn't too off-topic. Napoli vs Milan, it's an amazing game for the Champions League. I think Milan's performance this season has been underwhelming in Serie A, while Napoli are the favorites in the Champions League. If Napoli and Inter are the two teams most likely to reach the semifinals then I can really think of one of them going to the final this season.