Quote from: Baofeng on March 24, 2023, 11:52:53 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 24, 2023, 12:35:44 PM

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Correct, so I will give my self as another example. Although I heard bitcoin years ago, I was not that serious, until I join and enter in 2017. That what the year wherein we reach all time high, I was not here prior, so I said to myself this is good.

Well, if we use your forum registration date as the time you got started in bitcoin, then surely there would have likely been quite the dilemma about what to do, when you are entering into an area in which there was a lot of disputes at that time, and also the BTC price had already run up to reach ATHs again at the beginning of the year, but there were also questions/concerns that the price was going to crash back below $500 before resuming up... so there were quite a few folks (whether newbies or not) who were either talked out of their coins or perhaps persuaded to wait... which in either case of selling at that time or waiting could have caused a certain amount of getting fucked by the then bad predominant advice.

So yeah your potentially earlier days into BTC in April 2017 could well have had provided an opportunity to get some BTC below the subsequent lowest BTC price points in 2018/2019/2020 (which would have been abilities to accumulate BTC at various price points between $1k and $3k and surely more fortunate to accumulate closer to $1k.. even though any of those prices between $1k and $3k feel pretty good right now) - even though frequently it can be hard to practically exercise such a practice to lump sum front load your investment into BTC because you may well have not had enough value available to inject into BTC and we really ONLY know from subsequent events that the BTC price did not drop back below $3,124 and surely even getting BTC below $4k after September 2017 was a pretty uncommon (infrequent) occurrence.

So in that regard, it was not always clear to know that sub $4k coins were not really going to be very easy to obtain after September 2017, and even in recent times, there had been thoughts that BTC prices were going to allow for BTC to be purchased below $4k.. yet by now, there are a lot of folks who now realize that the sub-$4k ship sailed long ago.. and any actually ability to get coins below sub $4k after September 2017 had been for ONLY short-periods of time and you better be ready, willing and able to act when such opportunities are presented to you.

There might be some truth in regards to sub-$20k having a similar kind of fate.. and so when we passed above $20k in December 2020, many of us might not have realized that the quantity of time to be able to purchase BTC below $20k was limited, and even our recent fortune to have quite a lot of opportunities to buy BTC below $20k between June 2022 and as recently as two weeks ago may well have been the end of an era... even though currently, I am not quite so confident to proclaim that the current local bottom of $15,479 is in (from November 2022), yet in 2 or 3 years, we might start to consider sub $20k prices for BTC as a similar kind of phenomena that we currently consider sub $4k BTC to be.. something that is hardly likely to happen (perhaps less than 1% odds.. which are "non-zero" odds, but not anything that any of us (who are trying to live in the real world with prudent and realistic approaches to our financial and psychological lives) should be putting any kind of serious preparations into pie in the sky events).

Quote from: Baofeng on March 24, 2023, 11:52:53 PM

And then the bear market started and most of the individuals that I might have been with that time frame could have quit their job and focus more on this market (because I remember such thread early 2018, around January when we are still in the euphoric stage, I don't know what happen to those individuals though). So if by chance I also quit my job and concentrate on trading, then it's going to be very difficult for me in 2018-2020.

Exactly! Part of the reason that I believe that it is better to mostly attempt to plan our BTC strategies around bottom price scenarios, including that I still believe that the 200-week moving average serves as a pretty strong and decent bottom indicator - even though in recent times, we spent nearly 9 months of mostly being below the 200-week moving average, which has so far been a pretty uncommon occurrence in BTC, but still way safer than planning around the top BTC prices, such as the top of the cycle that you had mentioned in late 2017/early 2018.

By the way, currently the 200-week moving average is right at about $25,427; however, when we first went below it in June 2022, it was around $22,200-ish. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/ So the 200-week moving average has continued to move up, but staying mostly below it for around 9 months has surely caused its upward slope to become more graduated in recent times.. but for me, it still seems to be a pretty decent ongoing bottom indicator.. even if BTC prices might still go below it again.. but still way safer in terms of financial and psychological health to plan around bottoms rather than tops.

Quote from: Baofeng on March 24, 2023, 11:52:53 PM

Luckily I didn't do that, and so we all know that 2018 was very tough for those first timers like me. But I did survived and learn a valuable lesson from it, that is, the bear market is the best time to accumulate and simply HODL on it. And so when the bear market strikes last year, the last 6 months of it I'm continuing to do DCA or shall we shall still buying as much as I can, save it and then wait for the next bull run. I know it's mentally though, but that is also a character that I developed in Bitcoin investment. You really need to focus and not to be emotional just because you see your porftolio jumping 10%-20% in a day and thinking to sell some. Wait for the right time to offload your stash to maximize your profits. So as you get t he experience, you level up and become a better investor. Grin

For sure, there is going to be some individual variance in regards to what might be the better ways to attempt to deal with BTC's likely inevitable volatility - and one of the difficulties is that we know that BTC is going to be volatile even while at the same time, we cannot be completely sure which direction or how much.

So part of the problem that any newbie normie has when coming into bitcoin is to figure out how much cashflow (or capital) to initially allocate to bitcoin, and then how much to allocate on an ongoing basis, because even though most people have some abilities to figure out and calculate matters related to their own finances and psychology, there still are unknowns in regards to personal finances and psychology and then there is the additional unknown about how to treat bitcoin as compared to other investment opportunties, so in the end all of those various knowns and unknowns have to be combined in order to come up with a individually tailored strategy that allows for a certain level of comfort that is not completely vulnerable to the BTC price extremes that might come, so there can be some ways to calculate BTC's volatility in terms of projecting out various extremes and then therefore turn one of the unknowns into more of a known - even though it still can be difficult, even if any of us has already projected out what we are going to do and how we are going to go forward even if some extreme scenarios (even beyond our calculations) ends up playing out.

Some people proclaim that we need to be through one whole BTC price cycle in order to really start to become comfortable with BTC's price volatility and whatever might be our BTC accumulation/maintenance approach, but surely it is possible that some of us might need to go through a few of those cycles before becoming comfortable, even though being in profits likely helps to bring comfort, but at the same time, depending upon how old any of us might be, it can take a real long time to build up the principle in any investment, even if that investment has been largely doing better than expected (or maybe even better than other investment opportunties that seem to be available).

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:58:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 23, 2023, 05:19:11 PM

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That's true, JJG. That's why I believe one of the things that helped me HODL, even through all of the strongest temptations and fear, is keeping my coins in cold storage through an old computer, offline. I panic during crashes and get tempted to sell. BUT starting to get my USB HD, and thinking about the process of signing the transaction, sending the transaction, removing my USB HD from my computer to the other computer, I stop myself.

It was probably just my mood.

Furthermore, if in doubt, meditate with this meme in your mind.

Hahahahaha .. Yeah. It is funny how even a small kind of an obstacle can keep any of us "in check" during some of the times in which we are feeling some inclinations to "take some off the table," and for sure, we can never know for sure if we made the right decision until much further down the road.. so many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while have had those kinds of moments of potential weakness.. and we can probably recognize and appreciate that those kinds of potential moments of weakness likely subside more and more the longer that we are in bitcoin because as any of us should be able to imagine that there are guys who have average costs of $1 per BTC, $10 per BTC,$100 per BTC, $1,000 per BTC, $10k per BTC, $30k per BTC, $40k per BTC, $60k per BTC, and perhaps some other variations, and many of us likely can imagine that the lower is our average cost per BTC, then the less likely that we are going to get worried about dips that come further down the road because they are likely not as significant... even if such dips might still bother us.

And the considerations of having regret and/or psychological pressures are not ONLY about the average cost per BTC, because there are some cases of guys who might have ONLY invested small amounts of value into bitcoin, and they have been worried about keeping their average price per BTC down. Let's take the guy who bought 20 BTC in 2015 for around $300 per BTC, so he invested a total of $6k, versus the guy who might have bought BTC between 2013 and 2017 and ended up buying 200 BTC, but his costs per BTC were around $1k per BTC (3.33x higher BTC costs as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015), so he invested around $200k into BTC (about 33.3x more invested as compared with the one who lump summed into BTC in 2015).

Which one would you rather be? Are you concerned about how much cheaper your coins might end up being if you end up investing way less into bitcoin because you had been overly whimpy in your perspective and your BTC investment approach? Part of my suggestion has been to DCA and continue to invest, even if continuing to invest might cause your average per BTC to go up and the amount that you invested to end up going up, yet at the same time, I understand that each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding these kinds of matters, and we are not necessarily going to know or to recognize if our approach sufficiently paid off (with fewer regrets) than perhaps maybe something like 10, 20 or 30 years down the road, and then by then, we will not be able to go back and to change our approach.. and we can ONLY change our approach right now (that is if we need to change it)..

If we continue to attempt to learn along the way, we likely will not be able to fix all of our mistakes, but we will likely catch some of them earlier and be able to improve our approach, even though there are never really any guarantees in regards to which investments to make and then how much to allocate, and part of the mistakes that some people historically had made has been to fail/refuse to get off zero.. so even if they might not have had liked bitcoin as an investment they likely would have been better to put 1% into bitcoin rather than zero.. even though the more aggressive ones of 10% or more or even 25% or more may well have had a better risk adjusted outcome in terms of how bitcoin has ended up performing as compared to any other investments that they had made.