Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 01, 2023, 12:48:39 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 31, 2023, 08:51:17 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 30, 2023, 04:15:30 PM

[edited out]

But what many people fail to objectively recognize is capital for many/most of us plebs is limited. We need to wait, even if there's a risk that we might make our bids higher than originally intended.

We keep going over the same points or perhaps very similar points.. and sure no problem.. yet you keep raising your points as if they were good (or something novel), and they are not. Cheesy

Part of the reason that your points are not good is because you assert them as if they were absolutes and you fail/refuse to put actual numbers behind your assertions or even to really flesh out the ramifications of what you are saying.. which seems to be a kind of expectation that anyone may well be employing DCA merely because they bought too high..

I say that the principle of DCA and getting the fuck started applies no matter the size of the budget, and really any of us should be figuring out what our budget is in order to know how much we are able to DCA without running out of money.. whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that is within our budget, and it is up to each of us to figure out how large our budget can be, and sure $100 per week may well be out of reach of a lot of normies, so if you do not like to use $100 per week as a presumptive budget then tell me what kind of a budget that you would like to use.

$10 per week? or is that too much? $10 per month?

The budget can be whatever.. and any of us should still be able to employ DCA strategies and also hold some of the value aside in order to be able to buy on dips, too... and so how to divide that up, depends upon the numbers, and yeah if the cashflow is not consistent than that is another obstacle, but it does not necessarily preclude DCAing. On the other hand, if the finances are so bad that a person is not able to actually put aside any money for investing, then that's another story too, but most people can figure out ways to put aside some kind of money by either earning more or spending less, and surely some folks live in place in which the salaries are low and other people live in places where things cost a lot... but that does not necessarily mean that they are not able to save or to invest, and once there is some amount of cashflow that can be saved or invested, then the strategies that come from that tend to fall into the main three which are DCA (which is the best) buying on dip, and lump sum.. and of course, HODL is likely a kind of fall back position.. which might mean that some screw up had occurred or maybe some other irregular kinds of circumstances.. which is not most people's situation.. even though everyone likely has various phases in their lives where it is more difficult to generate cashflow or to have any discretionary income.. and so of course, anyone who lives with exceptional circumstances needs to account for their exceptional circumstances, yet I am surely not going to presume exceptional circumstances.. so we probably should be trying to talk about base case and more common strategies and scenarios that should be applied rather than assuming exceptional circumstances.... which seems to be what you continuously want to do... talk about exceptional circumstances as if they were the base case.

So, yeah maybe $10 per week feels like it is not enough to be able to divide or whatever, but when we are presenting these kinds of hypotheticals, it is best start with some kind of a number, and if your whole budget that is available for investing into bitcoin is $10 per week, then maybe you might choose to ONLY DCA with $5 per week and you save the other $5 per week for buying on dips.. the fact of the matter is that you can work your amounts into your various categories, even if they are small amounts, and hopefully the longer that any of us invest into bitcoin, then the more likely our numbers should be getting BIGGER.. and surely no guarantees that the BTC price is going to go up, either, and it could take a long time to build up our investment portfolio, too.. especially someone who has a budget of $10 per week is going to likely build an investment portfolio that is 10x smaller than the person who has a budget of $100 per week and the one with a $1,000 per week will be able to build a portfolio 100x the size of the $10 per week person and 10x the size of the $100 per week person..

Anyhow, we can go back over these various hypotheticals if you want, and I think that you are wrong when you are suggesting to wait for a dip in 2019, when you could have had started investing in bitcoin in 2013... It is just a ridiculous assertion, and yeah maybe you were too scared and whatever, and maybe you did not learn about bitcoin well enough for 6 years that you should have studied it a wee bit better, and it does not even matter what the price is going to do, get the fuck started, and don't be waiting.. and in the end, you can do what you like, but really getting started seems to be the best approach for anyone (historically it has been the best strategy to get started investing in bitcoin sooner rather than later, and really there is no evidence that either bitcoin's investment thesis is weaker with the passage of time, and there also is no evidence that similar kinds of assertive/aggressive accumulation strategies are not going to continue to have better chances to pay off rather than either whimpy approaches or wait and see approaches, and even if the amount that is invested into bitcoin is a relatively small amount, after a couple of years of investing $10 per week, or whatever, anyone who had already been investing into bitcoin should be in a way better position to reassess his/her particular situation, and if the investment happens to be in the negative after a couple lf years, the right strategy is probably to just keep going/continuing with the same approach.. and maybe after 4-10 years of continuing to invest the results will start to be felt a bit better.. and even though there are no real guarantees, it is likely that we are going to have better understandings regarding whether or how to tweak our BTC accumulation techniques rather than than if we had waited several years before we even got started... So part of the point has frequently been to get started sooner rather than later... and to have time in the market rather than timing the market.. and again.. no guarantees.. do what you like... even though I continue to say get started sooner rather than later and at least figure out what your plan is going to be.. even if it ends up being a relatively whimpy plan... It is better to have a plan, especially in regards to something like bitcoin, than to not have a plan.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 31, 2023, 08:51:17 AM

Imagine DCA-ing from ATH because "Get in now or have fun staying poor", then running out of capital by the DIP to $30,000, then seeing the investment go to $15,000. It's better to have waited in my opinion because we should be front-running the institutions, not them front-running us.

You seem to be mixing up DCA'ing and buying on dip. By definition, you do not run out of money when DCA'ing because you are buying the same amount every week mo matter what.

Many folks may well run out of money when buying on dip because there is a tendency to deploy extra money as the price is dipping, and as we know it keeps dipping... so part of the problem with any kind of trying to time the price direction is still figuring out how much of a dip is a dip... and it is not easy to get it correct, but with DCA, you don't try to calculate, you just establish a budget and you keep buying.

Of course, you can combine DCA and buying on dip, but that still is not necessarily asserting that you should give up on one or the other, but you could try to play both of them, and you should not get them mixed up..... even if you might say you are DCAing when you are not because some folks may well be buying more when they believe the price is lower and then buying less when the price is higher, and then such folks are NO longer DCAing, but instead employing some kind of a hybrid model.

You can create separate budgets for buying on dip and DCAing and you can also have certain strategies that you employ if a large sum of money comes to you in which you allocate parts of the money towards each of the three categories... Let's say, for example, that all of a sudden you get an extra $2,400 that comes to you, and you won the lottery or something. You could do whatever you like with that $2,400, but you also could assign 1/3 to each of the three categories.... $800 towards lump sum investing in which you buy it right away, $800 towards DCAing where you might spread it over 26 weeks or some other amount of time and in that case 26 weeks would give you nearly $31 per week.. and the remaining $800 could be for buying on dips, and maybe you already have some value that you have assigned towards buying on dips, but you just end up adding the $800 to your already existing plan.. so maybe every time the BTC price drops $1,000, you buy an additional $100 (so that prepares you down $8k from the current price.. so currently might prepare you down to $20k), but you may decide that you are not going to start to buy on dips until the price gets below $24k, and so then you might be able to add $100 per $1k drop down to $16k.. and of course, you can divide it up however you like in regards to how far you would like to prepare down for while also understanding that if the price does not drop down then you are not going to end up using that money.. and if the price drops down further you are going to run out.. so you have to figure out for yourself in regards to how you would like to balance those three categories.. and if you would rather wait than to have a plan, then that's your choice... or if you want to hypothesize that the problem is that you are too poor and blah blah blah.. then that's your choice.. I still believe that you can plan whether you are rich or poor and you just figure out how you want to deploy your budget in a way that you believe is good for your situation... and if you believe that waiting is what you want to do, then that's your choice.. even though I doubt that waiting is a good plan.. and I continue to repeat that.

What you seem to be doing is make very long posts that doesn't really disprove what was discussed before. Because, truly, you can budget your money as well as you can, but the facts remain that capital is indeed truly limited. You can decide to make your Bitcoin purchases $1.00 every week, and still nothing will change = capital is LIMITED. My only opinion on the matter is, because it's limited especially for plebs like us, we should be more careful and look for better entries. Plus I don't know why you find that very laughable, or why if some poster disagrees with your opinion, he should be ridiculed or he should "have fun staying poor". We're here to learn from each other, not to be ridiculed.

I know I'm a mere pleb, but ridiculing plebs because you simply disagree with them makes you look like a charlatan in my opinion. I respect you, but you're giving me a reason not to.