Quote from: Sayeds56 on Today at 10:37:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:49:58 AM

I would suggest that even if many folks do not buy bitcoin on the dip and they end up coming into bitcoin much later, they will still likely do o.k. to get involved in bitcoin rather than continuing to stubbornly resist bitcoin, so there remains quite a bit of advantage to get into bitcoin sooner rather than later and to work out various psychological difficulties that come with bitcoin's ongoing volatility that is likely not going to start, and also just continuing to learn about bitcoin along the way, and surely even very rich folks learn about bitcoin and can be humbled by bitcoin at various times..and it can take a while to build a stash that causes someone to become more psychologically stable and to begin to believe that s/he has enough bitcoin.. and perhaps even the Michael Saylor (MSTR) example shows that buying a lot and buying more than others might not feel like enough for some folks. Others come in at various high prices and then they might buy a lot of BTC with average costs per BTC that are way above the BTC price for significant periods of time prior to starting to getting back into profits and feeling more comfortable to have more options when in profits as compared to not being in profits.. even though ongoing buying of BTC while not in profits will likely bring down the average cost per BTC.

I completely agree with your suggestion that it is always beneficial to get involved in Bitcoin even if someone misses out the opportunity to buy at major dip.
I think the volatility of Bitcoin will persist until marketcap of Bitcoin reaches to a more substantial level, such as 5 trillion or higher, as on this level it will become difficult for whales to speculate the market. Despite current volatility, these fluctuations present good opportunities to get entry at lower prices whenever such an opportunity arises.

I think that there is something wrong with your picture Sayeds56. It's like you are being too optimistic in regards to how "little" BTC price appreciation is needed before the bitcoin price (market) starts to become less manipulatable and therefore more "stable," and you are speculating that a mere 10x price increase from today's prices would be enough to contribute towards more BTC price stability.

It's not like I consider you to be wrong in substance, but mostly wrong in degree, since I do agree with you that the larger that bitcoin becomes the more "stable" and "less volatile" that it is going to become, yet I would consider increases in BTC's market cap to gradually contribute to the lessening of the likely inevitable volatility and we are going to likely need around 200x to 1,000x or more price increase from here before the volatility starts to subside in any kind of material and/or meaningful way, and yeah sure of course, every increase in BTC's market cap ends up requiring way more capital in order to manipulate it, yet I still think that the number of players and the back and forth battles and the attempts to manipulate just continues to go up because as the BTC price goes up and the market cap goes up and then number of players and the size of players continues to go up, they all kind of off-set each other and we continue to experience volatility and battles and the players just get BIGGER and BIGGER and the battles some times might get worse, but still some players are going to be less injured in the process and some will be more injured in the process and some of the players will find out that they should have been on one side of the battle or the other or that they may have had made mistakes along the way in terms of how they entered into the battle (whether they realized that they were entering a battle or not).

So I am tentatively thinking that when BTC's market cap gets between $100 trillion and $1 quadrillion.. then that will be the area in which there likely is going to be more stability and more acceptance of bitcoin.. and surely I don't disagree with you that along the way, there are going to continue to be lessening of volatility.. but I doubt that the volatility will just gradually decrease and even stop at such a rate that you seem to be presuming with a mere 10x increase in the BTC price from here.. and it seems that we are going to likely need at least another 20x increase in BTC price and market cap beyond your $5 trillion target area in order to just start to substantially and materially start to feel some confidence that the level of the battles are going down and some stability is coming into the BTC space.

Now how long that it takes for all of this to play out.. is not necessarily easy to figure out..

It seems that we should be able to achieve another 10x from here pretty easily, such as within this cycle or the next cycle.. and then to get another 10x to 100x after the coming 10x, could take another 20 to 200 years. Who knows? It is difficult to try to predict the various legs of the ups and downs along the way.. so many of us appreciate that we have ups and downs along the way, and sometimes if we might expect upward movement from here, such as 5x to 10x in this cycle, and we could end up getting down instead or maybe we end up getting 200x instead of 5x to 10x, so there are quite a few variations, and it becomes difficult to predict more than one or two legs out, without first presuming what the first leg is, and then if that leg happens, then we have these various other "leg possibilities" that come from the mere fact that the first leg ended up playing out like (x ) rather than playing out like (-x) or rather than playing out like some other variation of (~x) that we had not anticipated.

Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:46:54 PM

Quote from: Sayeds56 on Today at 10:37:27 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:49:58 AM

I would suggest that even if many folks do not buy bitcoin on the dip and they end up coming into bitcoin much later, they will still likely do o.k. to get involved in bitcoin rather than continuing to stubbornly resist bitcoin, so there remains quite a bit of advantage to get into bitcoin sooner rather than later and to work out various psychological difficulties that come with bitcoin's ongoing volatility that is likely not going to start, and also just continuing to learn about bitcoin along the way, and surely even very rich folks learn about bitcoin and can be humbled by bitcoin at various times..and it can take a while to build a stash that causes someone to become more psychologically stable and to begin to believe that s/he has enough bitcoin.. and perhaps even the Michael Saylor (MSTR) example shows that buying a lot and buying more than others might not feel like enough for some folks. Others come in at various high prices and then they might buy a lot of BTC with average costs per BTC that are way above the BTC price for significant periods of time prior to starting to getting back into profits and feeling more comfortable to have more options when in profits as compared to not being in profits.. even though ongoing buying of BTC while not in profits will likely bring down the average cost per BTC.

I completely agree with your suggestion that it is always beneficial to get involved in Bitcoin even if someone misses out the opportunity to buy at major dip.
I think the volatility of Bitcoin will persist until marketcap of Bitcoin reaches to a more substantial level, such as 5 trillion or higher, as on this level it will become difficult for whales to speculate the market. Despite current volatility, these fluctuations present good opportunities to get entry at lower prices whenever such an opportunity arises.

It is indeed very good in buying bitcoins especially for those who trade both whales and anchovies,

yeah, but we are not talking about trading in this thread. fuck trading.

Quote from: Dickiy on Today at 04:46:54 PM

but some people including me who don't have much time to further analyze either technically charts or sentiments of news speculation I think it will make me worse at searching opportunity to buy bitcoin, especially me, who intends to hold it for a long time, sometimes I don't care about the volatility and market opportunities in a particular month because the calculation is based on the previous high price, for example last year $ 69k and the next cycle will definitely be higher the highest price, so when the price is in the zone like now which is still below 50% of the previous highest price DCA I continue to buy bitcoin, because in my opinion the opportunity exists when the price of bitcoin is still far from the previous ATH.

I agree with all of this part, except for your inference that there is some kind of "guarantee" that the BTC price will go higher.

There are no guarantees that the BTC price will go higher, even though bitcoin remains a great asymmetric bet to the upside, perhaps amongst the best of asymmetric bets for a lot of normies who might not otherwise be able to invest because barriers to entry are difficult.

And, I am not even suggesting that barriers to entry into BTC are not high also, but the barriers to entry into BTC tend to be in regards to the person learning about it and acting upon such knowledge. and the barriers are not so much from some of the difficulties of other kinds of investments.

It seems that the longer that any of us have been buying BTC, then the more likely the better off that we are, and it seems quite likely that this kind of trend is going to continue with bitcoin (even if it is not guaranteed), and furthermore, even if a newbie to bitcoin is just finding out about bitcoin or maybe only recently found out about bitcoin in a shorter period of time, if such person continues to invest 4-10 years or more into bitcoin, the chances are quite good that s/he will be better off for having had invested into bitcoin rather than investing into other kinds of assets, and even though sure there are no guarantees either.. but bitcoin still seems to be amongst the best of current bets (asymmetric to the upside) that are currently available if not the very best of bets that are currently available... again.. no guarantees..