Quote from: hisslyness on Today at 06:56:37 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 19, 2023, 06:39:09 PM

Yesterday, I updated my projection of entry-level fuck you status chart based on some of the recent great declines in BTC prices that we have seen (mostly over the last year-ish), and I also tried to cause the rate of increase of the BTC bottom price to become more gradual with the passage of time.

So for example, my chart shows a BTC bottom price of:

$39,257 by mid-2024

$144,982 by mid-2028

$370,105 by mid-2032

$640,052 by mid-2035

$1,013,573 by mid-2038

$1,960,433 by late 2043

and

$5,639,679 by mid-2056

Sure, I am not really sure how realistic these projected BTC bottom price numbers are, but I think that they are a bit better than my earlier version that I had created on December 28, 2021 - and that did not have any graduation of the projection curve, and instead my earlier version was more of a straight-line appreciation of the BTC bottom price that was right around 75% per year.. which even at the time that I created it I had considered to be difficult to sustain. My current chart shows projected BTC price bottom snapshots every 6 months.

Also, I think that one of my underlying presumptions is meant to be based on projecting forward based on the value of today's dollars.. but still I understand that sometimes it can be difficult to project so far into the future, especially when there is an expectation that the dollar is going to continue to lose value and maybe even to lose value more than it has historically debased - especially if we account for many of the seemingly crazy monetary policies in recent times.

Alot of information to take in, but i what i take out of this is:

Your current FU status of 95BTC

11/30/22 $17,164 $20,903.99 24.59% 95.00% $5,139.90 95.67552464

isn't something you should be aiming for, but rather 4BTC

5/31/33 $449,033.53 9.69% 97.00% $43,528.37 4.45401035
11/29/33 $492,561.90 9.40% 97.00% $46,315.48 4.06040335
is more of a realistic target, here and now!

That's a fair interpretation hisslyness, and of course many of us longer term bitcoiners have personally experienced a variety of ways in which members have worked their own BTC accumulation levels - which includes the fact that sometimes we might conclude that being greedy is going to contribute towards our transitioning into richie status faster - even though at the same time, especially in recent times, we have witnessed a lot of reckening of folks who might ONLY have had been being aggressive in terms of allowing some of their coins to be held by third parties (perhaps because they wanted to earn yield) and then finding out that they did not have the coins that they thought that they had because either the third party had gambled away their coins or their coins had otherwise gotten locked up in financial insolvency proceedings.

Many of us have made mistakes along the way in terms of either being too aggressive, allowing too many coins stay with third parties, and surely there are a lot of folks who have also either been too whimpy or sold coins on the way up (sold too many too soon) and thought that they might be able to buy back cheaper.

So, yeah perhaps part of the lesson is that we do not need as many coins as we think that we might need in order to either arrive at an entry-level fuck you status or to prepare for entering into fuck you status at various time lines into the future.

I remain a bit concerned that I might be too aggressive in my own projection of our ongoing expectation that the bottom will continue to go up, and even though you can see that

The earliest portions of the chart, we had seen that the percentage per year that the bottom was going up was around 146.23% per year (in 2014) and then 64.22% per year (in 2020), 49.08% per year (in late 2022) and then merely 19.09% per year (in 2033 - if you add the two 6-month periods together that you highlighted above), then we can see that I trying to project that the rate of the increase of the bottom price is going down, but am I still being too overly optimistic in terms of the arrived-at numbers for each of the subsequent years? While at the same time, maybe I am allowing the amount of the increase to gravitate way too low, if I am projecting that the bottom is ONLY going to increase by 7.34% by the time we get to 2056, so surely there are some of the actual dynamics of UPpity of the BTC price bottom that are almost inevitably going to be incorrect because changes of a few percentage points in one direction or another would likely throw off the trajectory.. unless the numbers end up reverting back to the curve that I had projected at a later date (which would most likely become luck rather than based on any kind of scientific ability to predict the future beyond attempting to ballpark the matter)?

For reference (from my chart) below, I highlight each of the years mentioned above (and pretty much take the %gain/time x2 in order to arrive at the projected annual rate of increase of the projected BTC bottom price for each of the timelines).

>>>>
Date    RL_Price    BTCBottom    %gain/time    %Rate∆    $Amnt∆    Coins/FU Status
6/1/14    $644    $46.41    73.13%    92.00%    $33.94    43,098.5887
......
5/31/20    $9,472    $5,889.38    32.11%    94.50%    $1,891.30    339.5943
......
11/30/22    $17,164    $20,903.99    24.59%    95.00%    $5,139.90    95.67552464
......
5/31/33             $449,033.53    9.69%    97.00%    $43,528.37    4.45401035
11/29/33             $492,561.90    9.40%    97.00%    $46,315.48    4.06040335
.................
5/29/56             $5,639,679    3.67%    99.00%    $206,870    0.35463012
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