So we can safely say that we will see a true bull run only when the economy will start recovering, but it can't happen until rates will start going down. That's why right now I think that we all should wait for the one single indicator: lowering of the rates. Bitcoin won't go up mediately, but it will mean that economy will start recovering => more money will go to the assets => and bitcoin and bonds will go up.
The only question is when will it happen? Well, if we look at how fast inflation is going down, I can assume that it will probably go down to the expected 3-4% in the Q4 of 2023. So I'm not expecting a bull run until 2024.
If you talk about cycles, just try to calculate which year it will run? A price increase of course will occur after the Halving, but not really sure if it will find a new price, but what has happened is that a halving can bring a new direction to the bitcoin price and we can never refuse to that.
But again, I don't want you all to be bearish on bitcoin or selling it. For most people, DCA is enough to survive this crypto winter, but if you want to invest a lot of money in bitcoin, then I think it's better to wait until the signal we talked about.
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There are different formats and patterns for people investing in bitcoin, DCA and selling are two things that need to be strategically positioned, so that you are in the right conditions when buying or at the right time to sell.
If you intend to wait, the steps that must be taken are to be patient and if you want to invest large amounts now it is still possible to do it, because when the halving appears next year according to predictions for the current year, our profits will multiply many times from our initial capital. Estimates, formulas and research are urgently needed so that there is a level of accuracy that can lead us to the perfection of investments and decisions made based on these three studies.