Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 07:21:33 PM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 06:54:53 PM

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

Why do you waste your time in the speculation forum then? There are other threads where the research is made:

Quote from: Peter R on April 14, 2014, 06:57:17 PM

Quote from: dogechode on April 14, 2014, 06:24:15 PM

The problem I see here is that, while a great savings/investment plan, it seems to be assuming that BTC will just keep going up indefinitely at some radical rate of growth.

Here is a log chart of bitcoin's historical market capitalization, along with what I refer to as its (adoption-based) "Metcalfe Value." This chart empirically shows two things:

(a) bitcoin's market cap has grown roughly proportional to the square of these two chosen measures of "adoption."
(b) "adoption" (based on these two measures) has grown roughly exponentially for five years.

Will bitcoin adoption continue to grow?