just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual. almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen. On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...
The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.
after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).