Quote from: darkangel11 on May 12, 2023, 03:39:35 PM

Quote from: Gachapin on May 11, 2023, 10:52:06 PM

Quote from: pixie85 on May 11, 2023, 07:42:39 PM

Quote from: Gachapin on May 11, 2023, 07:04:06 PM

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual. almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen. On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Quote from: pixie85 on May 11, 2023, 07:42:39 PM

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

Interesting...

So this is what I wrote in another thread

Quote from: darkangel11 on May 12, 2023, 03:23:03 PM

Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.

Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.

A few minutes later I go through the thread and find exactly what I was thinking about. The "this time it's going to be different" prediction.

I have to disappoint you. You actually didn't find a prediction there.

When I described my statement with "just a thought" and "there is a possibility", I hoped it to be obvious that it's not a prediction. I was merely brainstorming some thoughts.

I'm not an analyst predicting anything, so please don't put me in any of your analyst "camps". Grin

Quote from: darkangel11 on May 12, 2023, 03:39:35 PM

So you support the theory that we can't all be rich, so if there's a large enough group thinking that bitcoin will go up, it will go down, so that the majority can be squashed and the one that swims against the current can win. I could give you a number of cases in the history of bitcoin where this wasn't the case. For instance, after falling 60-40k, at least half of the traders felt like this couldn't be the end and more likely a correction before another move up, and it was. If you bought at 30k, or held through the correction, there was a new ATH just around the corner. It wasn't the high most of us expected, but it was a new high.

I hope I get you, but you will always find examples where the expectations of the majority came true. But that's not the common situation in markets. Otherwise John Doe would just follow the herd and be rich, which obviously is not the case.

Everyone getting rich might be a rather a childish idea, but Bitcoin is probably the best shot to achieve that.
Probably by hodling. Certainly not by timing market movements.

Quote from: darkangel11 on May 12, 2023, 03:39:35 PM

This looks to me like a final attempt to put a pressure on the price and capitulate on the mood.

Would be nice