Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 07:43:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 22, 2023, 11:12:45 PM

[edited out]

I agree with you on this, because every investors know how many bitcoin they want to accumulate. It all boils down to the mindset,income and bitcoin goal of individuals. Mr A might choose to start accumulating his bitcoin till it gets to 2BTC because he knows that in few years he can achieve that,and Mr B can also feel that all he needs is 1BTC and he try his best to accumulate this over some period of time. Likewise,Mr C can come up with not having an actual amount which he wants to accumulate but because he loves and believe in bitcoin, he decided to just keep on accumulating to see how many Bitcoin he can accumulate for a long period of time without a target in his mind. What you said it is true,some investors accumulate to their bitcoin goal and after some years, they decide in double their portfolio due to some reasons.

All of this seems to be true.. and at the same time, the best that we can attempt to know is our own current budget, and to attempt to figure out how aggressive that we might want to be.. whether we make our evaluations in the amount of bitcoin that we accumulate or the goals that we set or we attempt to evaluate the dollar value of that accumulation or some kind of a combination.

I think that at the same time, we should be able to plot out a variety of possible BTC accumulation scenarios in order to attempt to have various aims that might show how our valuation of those various BTC accumulation scenarios might play out depending on our own cashflow circumstances, how well (and aggressive) that we might be in our BTC accumulation within such projected future scenarios and surely changes in the BTC price along the way will both affect how many BTC we are able to accumulate in a certain period of time and how it is valued (in dollars) at various points in the journey.

I like to create Excel spreadsheets to project scenarios, and from time to time, I can either update the Excel spreadsheets or change scenarios or change the name (maybe just by keeping the same name, but including the date in the name).. so that I am able to go back and look at some of my earlier projections as compared to how my current BTC accumulation is going and how the price changes might have affected how it actually looks in a specific way as compared with how I had projected it to be at earlier points of time, whether i go back at certain low points in the BTC price in the past or high points or even a few years versus going back for nearly 9 years (and surely I have some of similar kinds of cashflow projections prior to my including bitcoin into those projections, so I can see pre-bitcoin versus after including bitcoin too).

No one really can know how it will play out. or even whether goals might be exceeded or underperformed in various ways, and personally, I think that I tended to try to be conservative in a variety of my projections, and even though I considered myself to be modestly assertive and persistent in regards to my BTC accumulation, but still at the same time, I have various locations in history in which I know that mistakes were made.. but at the same time, I can see that some of those mistakes caused set backs, but they were not as overwhelmingly damaging as sometimes they might feel at the time when they are made.. while at the same time, there can be ways in which mistakes are made. and it cannot be exactly clear regarding if things could have been done differently, if I had thought that I was already engaging in a kind of good practices.. and surely I feel lucky for NOT making even BIGGER mistakes that I know some others had made along the way that contribute to their later being bitter and resentful regarding mistakes that they could have been more careful in avoiding.

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 07:43:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 22, 2023, 11:12:45 PM

Quote from: Frankolala on May 22, 2023, 04:55:59 PM

Imagine if he had all those btc with him presently. Imagine someone has 0.1btc right now and was able to accumulate more bitcoin gradually and does DCA till he realizes 1btc and hold it for 13yrs,he will be very happy seeing the worth of his investment.

You know that past performance does not guarantee future results, and for sure many of us likely need to go through some balancing in terms of how we are going to manage our BTC - and sure, largely I do not disagree with you, since I have spent the last 9.5 years mostly accumulating bitcoin, but I also did most of my BTC accumulation in the first few years, so sometimes at a certain point, any of us might be able to figure out that we have enough bitcoin, so part of any balance that we might strike is going to come from a certain amount of trying to figure out how much of a balance of BTC that we might try to keep, and perhaps trying to plan to make sure that we are not giving up too much BTC along the way.. but if we had figured out in 2015 that we needed to get to 100 BTC in order to be at fuck you status if the 200 moving weekly average reaches $10k and then we would be a millionaire and we would be set. However, in 2020, we realize that maybe we might need to be at an evaluation of $2 million to be a fuck you status since $1 million might not work anymore. So then part of the question might be regarding whether we might need more bitcoin or not, if we had already reached our earlier goal and maybe we even met the later redefined goal, since currently it takes only around 80 BTC to be at $2million valuation..and so we are largely above fuck you status.. if that might be part of our aspiration in terms of both having enough and then figuring out if we need to exceed those amounts or where we might believe that we might want to hold some of our other assets, if we might not have anything other than bitcoin.. but as we already discussed, there may well likely be some preference to start to diversify once we start to build our investment portfolio to higher and higher amounts, and maybe at a certain point, we have way more than we had thought that we would end up needing (and that would not be a bad problem to have).

Yes when one feels that he has accumulated enough for himself,he can diversify to another asset. Some investors believes that there is a particular fraction of their funds that should be invested into various assets. For example, if he wants his bitcoin investment to be 10BTC,immediately he accumulates to that amount,he will stop and diversify to some other assets and nothing will change his mind because this was his plan.

I believe that you have the right idea Sim_card, but I would still frame the matter differently.

Sure, some of the diversification could come from selling a certain amount of bitcoin, but it also could just end up being a kind of tapering of some of the cashflow into other areas in order to get some price exposure to other areas, whether it might be stocks, or property or to some business or some other kind of way that a person might want to try to ensure that not all of his investment is ONLY in bitcoin.

I doubt that i was ever of the view that I should sell all of my bitcoin, but there were points in time in which I had gotten down to 85% bitcoin and 15% cash that was in my investment portfolio (when I started in bitcoin, I already had a bunch of other investments that largely related to various kinds of index stock funds, property and business matters.. so I did sometimes calculate in terms of what value I had allocated to bitcoin.. and sometimes within that part of my investment portfolio, I would consider bitcoin and cash.. and so there were always some cash reserves)..

So initially when I projected out my bitcoin strategy, I had considered that I would sell more bitcoin as the price went up as the BTC price was going up, but as the BTC price went up, I became increasingly reluctant to sell a lot of it, which surely can end up with some regrets or difficulties when the BTC price corrects 70% or more.... but I still figured out some ways to try to be comfortable with continuing to mostly hold BTC and not to be selling a lot of it, even though I knew that I would suffer in the valuations when the price went down.. which still is the case today when I still hold way over 95% of the BTC allocated funds in BTC and quite less than 5% in cash that would be for buying on dips. or even some kind of a DCA application.

It may not be very clear in the earlier days of BTC accumulation how to play the holdings of BTC or even how much BTC that you might want to sell on the way up in order to accomplish more diversification in your overall investment portfolio or maybe you just start to channel cashflow to those other areas, and likely you would end up tailoring whatever you end up doing to your own specific circumstances, that would be more informed upon your entertaining those questions at the time that you are ready to start to employ them which might end up playing out a bit differently from what you initially had planned to do.. and I am not even suggesting not making a plan.. it is likely good to have a plan that you make early on and then to either follow through with it exactly or to tweak it in various places along the way in order to hopefully account for your having more and better information that you will be able to specifically act upon at a later date.

You may well be saying the same thing as me.. just that you had said it differently, so I am not even suggesting that you are not already thinking in a similar direction as me on this topic of how to manage the portfolio at a later date down the road.

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 07:43:32 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 22, 2023, 11:12:45 PM

But yeah if you are referring to members in their earlier accumulation years, they may well be struggling to get up to 1 BTC, and maybe it could take years and years and years to get up to 1 BTC, and maybe they might be better off setting lower accumulation goals for themselves, if they happen to just be getting started in their BTC accumulation journey.

I must say that information is power. Personally, I was thinking very shallow on my bitcoin journey, I thought that if I can accumulate up to 0.5BTC that I have attained my bitcoin goal,not until when I saw this thread and started reading about members contributions on accumulating and holding for a very long time. My mindset towards my portfolio changed and I got motivated by you and some others to just keeping on accumulating more bitcoin, and I am very happy with this understanding and knowledge on the secrete towards accumulating and holding for as long as possible.

I think that it is true that if you end up accumulating bitcoin early on, and you continue to study bitcoin, and you might set some early BTC accumulation goals, and sure maybe they are easy or difficult, but as you accumulate more bitcoin, you might come up with more and more ways and more and more reasons to accumulate more BTC in such ways that you end up accumulating more BTC than you had initially thought that you had wanted to accumulate.. and so if you do end up engaging in those kinds of behaviors, you still have to likely ONGOINGLY make sure that you are comfortable with what you had chosen to do.. both financially and psychologically.. even if there might be some wee bits of discomfort that comes with any kind of potentially aggressive approach or over accumulation approach but hopefully not so much aggressiveness or over accumulation that you cross the line into gambling rather than investing.. and it is not always clear how far that you are able to go without crossing the line.

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 07:43:32 AM

My plan initially was to hold a certain amount of bitcoin till the bull run and sell off to make profit and buy at the dip again but that plan has been canceled. So I will say that newbies who only have little target to accumulate little btc is because of lack of proper knowledge and mentorship or guidance that will inspire them to go beyond their bitcoin accumulation goal. Newbies will lack that insight to see the potential of bitcoin in the nearest future on their own. This is what will make them set lower accumulation goal for themselves.

I agree and it is best when the conviction is coming from within yourself, even if you might rely on some information from others and some reinforcement, but ultimately you have to figure out your own balance because no one is going to give any shits about you if you fuck up.. except for yourself.. and you are responsible for those decisions, and the same is true for the no coiners, the low coiners and those who chose to be overly whimpy in their approach to BTC.. some of the whimpy ones will come along later.. and each of us has to figure out our own balance, and many of us bitcoiners already realize that there are a lot of folks who are way under allocated to bitcoin because they ongoingly and persistently continue to get off of zero.. and they may well end up regretting their lack of taking action down the road.. who knows? who knows? Maybe they will end up being right? hahahahahaha .. I doubt it, but you never know for sure.. that's the thing about taking risks and figuring out a comfortable allocation level in order that you can still live with your situation (financially and psychologically) if the investment thesis of bitcoin ends up not playing out even close to as great as you thought it would and even in a negative direction..

Quote from: Falconer on Today at 08:20:51 AM

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 07:43:32 AM

I must say that information is power. Personally, I was thinking very shallow on my bitcoin journey, I thought that if I can accumulate up to 0.5BTC that I have attained my bitcoin goal,not until when I saw this thread and started reading about members contributions on accumulating and holding for a very long time.

I have no way of agreeing with your plan because humans are basically never satisfied with what they have. Bitcoin is money, you can never give up on the amount you have without trying to accumulate it again as long as you are confident and have the budget to do so. 0.5 btc is not much, but it might be a lot for your current financial capabilities.

The time will come for you to have a bigger investment portfolio if you can do it consistently. Investments don't need to be forced and you have to be wise enough to set the direction of your income and expenses, so save as much as you can. Also some plans have gone haywire for some reason even unexpectedly. Do you remember when covid happened, many of us or investors had to sell a certain amount of bitcoins because they lost their source of income because of the lockdown.

Yep.. we have to be careful NOT to have to be forced to sell any (or all) of our bitcoin at a time that is not completely of our own choosing, and for sure the March 2020 scenario did force a lot of weak hands into selling BTC and perhaps even selling more than they would have had preferred to have sold - because it is may well be possible that they well never get those BTC back. That is one of the examples to have reserves and maybe even excessive reserves.. and if bitcoin is serving as your reserve, then you may well be over-allocated to bitcoin.. in a kind of way that does not make a lot of sense... but you do not know until the situation comes and then you end up panicking... and those kinds of situations are not easy, even for highly convicted bitcoiners to either HODL or to buy more or if they have to sell.. to sell as little as possible... and each person will have to be responsible for the level of extreme dire that s/he had put himself into by those kinds of outrageous and extreme scenarios that sometimes end up playing out in the real world rather than the world that had been imagined the the delusional investor who invested too much.

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 02:25:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 22, 2023, 11:12:45 PM

It seems to me that the vast majority of more well to do investors (and seemingly smarter investors) are likely going to have a certain amount of diversification in the assets that they hold - but philosophies in regards to how much diversification is preferable is going to have a decently large amount of variance in terms of both personal preferences and also in terms of some personal characteristics of the investor.. so I doubt that there is any exact one stop shopping when it comes to the question of diversification or not or how much to do it.. and could become more problematic for investment newbies to be believing that they need to diversify for the mere sake of diversifying. which largely might end up reflecting more that they both don't know what the fuck they are doing, they are diluting their investments and also they might just be blindly throwing darts with some kind of expectation that one or more of them might get lucky.

I agree with this statement, there is a certain point in time when you need to de-risk your investment portfolio so you start a diversified strategy. When to do it is a pitfall, and the other is most common trap I see is if all diversified assets are linked to one economy then you are not truly diversified. Some economies do better than others, some are safer than other some are more risky than others but putting all your eggs in one basket is a risk, whether that’s only going into one thing or if all the things are only linked to the success or failure of that one economy. I do like Bitcoin in that there are no borders Wink

You are exactly right Greyhats that diversification might not really count very much if it is not spread into different kinds of asset classes, or at least attempted to be spread into non-correlated asset classes.

One of our current economic problems have become that so many asset classes are so much tied into dollar/debt systems that a lot of them are going to end up seeming like they are getting fucked at various points when the dollar gets fucked...

but at the same time, the dollar might be a piece of shit, it still has value flowing into it from various other fiat systems that are even in worse situations.. and I am not even proclaiming to realize how it is all going to play out, but still other fiats do end up flowing into the dollar and a lot of the incentive systems of the free market are hard to read because of the various perversions of the various debt systems around the world.

Another diversification mistake that people make is their believing that their investing into shitcoins is diversifying, when the overwhelming majority of shitcoins are tied to the performance of bitcoin, so the diversification is likely not real at all.. and if anyone believe that they should by some shitcoins in order to "diversify" then at least if they try to minimize the number of shitcoins that they buy, then they can at least acknowledge that they are not really diversifying into any other different industry or not as much as some folks might want to proclaim them to be accomplishing by buying various shitcoins.. merely because they are easy to buy and might not be very easy to exit.. when the shit hits the fan (or at times that you might want to exit them).