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What do you think? Is a US default good or bad for crypto in the short term? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

I think that in the event of a default, in the short term, the price of bitcoin will fall into an area of increased turbulence due to a head-on collision of two strong trends - on the one hand, the price will drop sharply, because bitcoin belongs to the class of high-risk financial assets, on the other hand, the price will rise sharply, because that the network hashrate is stable, blocks continue to be mined at intervals of an average of every ten minutes, and a fall in the dollar automatically means an increase in bitcoin in the btc/usd pair.

I agree, perhaps a flash crash is possible, with an immediate or not so immediate pump due to fluctuating exchange rates. Just want to add that any failure of any FIAT is positive for Bitcoin in the long run.

The ideal scenario for Bitcoin, in my opinion, would not be a sudden failure of the FIAT system but rather a steady immigration of the population to more decentralized alternatives, as they realize the disadvantages FIAT can have in comparison to trustless systems like Bitcoin.

Weird enough, as the market works nowadays most of the liquidity of Bitcoin comes from the USD and USD pegged tokens.

Leaving that to one side, I still have the hope Republicans won't leave their markets to suffer over spending arguments, sounds contrary to what they are supposed to stand for...

Debt default is drawing closer and if there is no raising of debt ceiling yet from both parties, then both have two different decisions. A chaotic market ahead.

Bitcoin is now political. News flows by where DeSantis and RFK is into Bitcoin and have BTC to be their tool to in election. BTC is linked to popularity already and a presidential candidate who protcts BTC might win the BItcoiners.