Quote from: dropt on April 15, 2014, 02:04:14 PM

Quote from: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on April 15, 2014, 01:25:54 PM

The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.

What's this concern with the money entering the system being "new"? It's as if you think all of the people who cashed out during the double ATH withdrew to their fiat accounts and have washed their hands of Bitcoin. There is a lot of money on the sidelines.

By the sounds of it, my advice to you would be to sell all of your coins and never come back. Surely it's the end of Bitcoin since no new money is coming in and it's going to be a slow grind downwards. The peanuts you'll earn trading isn't worth the risk of losing your capital. Just leave now and keep your money safe.

Well, there are several factors to be considered here.
First we have to look at the constant stable supply. In the last 24 hours, 188 blocks were mined with 1 block bringing 25 new BTC into existance. Now we get that 188 * 25 = 4700 new BTC came out that need to be bought or held. With the current prices, most of it will be held not sold, because you wouldn't get any ROI and it has been like that for several months. Now you have to consider that this isn't being held forever and miners are already cutting their losses with selling during spikes like these. This all means that new fiat has to come in to buy those coins, or else the price starts to drop because rising supply without rising of demand will cause the price of the product to lower.

The second thing we have to consider here is that experienced investors don't think like the Hodlers here. They don't think that they would rather go down with the ship then to sell their coins, because they have no emotional attachment to bitcoin itself. When an experienced investor, holding a large amount of coins, can't see any reason for the demand to rise, then he will at least start gradually selling his coins to create a safety net if the entire project will fail. Most of the people don't see bitcoin as the holy currency of the future, but they just see it as an temporal phenomenon and a quick gamble. So, the chance that bitcoin will go to 0 isn't as impossible to them as it is to you. So, this means that they are gradually selling their stash and they would only buy back if there is a real reason to support the rising value of bitcoin. These guys don't buy because everyone else seems to be buying, this is an unpredictable bubble that can pop any second and if you are playing with a large amount, then it's hard to move fast enough with proper profits. The richer you are, the slower you have to be.

Third we have to consider that those Chinese who had legal intentions with BTC, and who caused the previous ATH, have in all probability already sold all of their coins. There is no longer any legal investment potential for BTC in China.

So we get the outcome that there are several factors that are causing the increase in supply and if there is the no rise in demand, and instead the drop in demand out of the loss of important markets and from the loss of trust that was caused by the gox fiasco.
We have seen these attempts to make the price rise with the money that was already inside the market system and we have seen the outcome of it. The rise will get exhausted very soon and will continue the drop. And the reason is very simple: more coins are coming to the market that are being bought.
You guys love all kinds of conspiracy theories about the banksters scheming to drive the price down etc. while the real answer is simple. I think that a lot of people are looking for conspiracy theories here because most of their connection with finance, has been youtube videos about financial conspiracies, and they have very little real experience with finance or trading