I have a mindset that when the game gets too simple, people will easily predict the market will go up, and bitcoin will hit ATH after the halving.
Nah, no, that's not how the market works if you really know the history of Bitcoin you will know that it takes time before it hits the ATH just like in the last bull run. I think it takes a year or so before it touches the final ATH and to think that there's no definite final answer to when is the ATH will hit depends on the market.
One thing that I know is if there's a FOMO, people will usually buy more that will cause the market to pump and if there's a panic then people will start to sell that will cause the market to drop.