Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2023, 01:19:43 PM

How about the $15,479 bottom that had taken place in November 2022? What are the odds that the bottom is in?

You can also choose other price targets and try to figure out odds that the BTC price might hit those price points. How much value are you going to set aside in order to be able to buy BTC at those various price points ... and then what if they do not end up playing out? Are you going to be o.k. with still holding value that is not in BTC?

Also, what about selling BTC in order to buy lower? Good luck with that, even though people do these kinds of things (even people who are in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation... and will those kinds of tactics work out?

Of course in this thread we are not really getting into selling to buy back lower because we are largely wanting to emphasize tactics to either regularly buy and/or to figure out various points in which we buy on dips and how much of a dip do we buy and how much we might save for further dips, if such further dips were to occur. and then if they don't occur, then what do we do? Are we still ok.. with that?

Yes. I also agree that volatility is unavoidable and attacks on Bitcoin in these 2 days are likely to be of short term duration even though we know the Bitcoin ecosystem is very complex, with both positive and negative elements affecting its price although It is difficult to determine the exact probability of price movement in certain period of time.

For sure each of us is going to assign probabilities to both price direction and even the degree to which the price might go down or up and how long it might stay there in differing kinds of ways, and the punchline likely has to do more with the extent to which we are individually tailoring our approach to our own various circumstances and where we might be at in our bitcoin journey, whether in an accumulation phase, a maintenance phase, a liquidation phase or some phase that overlaps with those ways of framing our own personal priorities... .so in that regard, view of price is only one of the aspects and the extent to which some people even believe that their view of price (or price direction or BTC price direction as compared to other assets) is an important part, then surely some people might act upon their figuring out of those kinds of matters more than others might not give as much emphasis to such things (such as perceptions of short term price direction).

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

Establishing a regular buying strategy, identifying buying opportunities during a downturn, and allocating funds for further potential downturns I think is exactly what you meant and If those downturns don't happen again we need to reassess and adjust.

Sure.. there can be combinations of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying.. and some times we might run out of money in order to buy more, so we might then decide that it is best to HODL.. or maybe we try to learn from our experiences. I think that it tends to be a mistake to either sell on the way down or to sell out of hopes that the BTC price will go down or to have felt that mistakes had been made in terms of running out of money in terms of preparations to be able to buy on the way down, so hopefully people learn from these kinds of likely mistakes, even though surely people have differing views in regards to how they believe that they want to achieve their objectives, even if they are in early BTC accumulation stages of their BTC strategy.

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

In November 2022, Bitcoin bottomed out at $15,479. However, today the situation has changed and the correlation may be different.

Of course bitcoin price dynamics is always a kind of moving target, and sometimes there may be patterns, and likely figuring out which parts to pay attention remains important too.. and yeah, I am not so much into trying to figure out the nitty gritty of short-term BTC price movements, and this thread does not seem to be like that, even though there is a kind of problem that comes when guys/gals are trying to figure out the dip.. rather than just buying BTC regularly.. so there may well come a kind of devolution in thinking that there are needs to figure out how much of a dip is going to come or maybe even failing to really assign values to just money that is allocated.. and surely if the budget is not very big.. then there are senses that every dollar counts and there is not enough dollars to spread in order to continue to buy all the way down, so there are needs to be strategic in terms of buys, so I can understand those kinds of inclinations that people have that likely lead to errors, emotionalism and perhaps even doing the wrong thing in a variety of ways (including that they might be overly invested and not holding enough fiat in reserves.. so that they can both buy BTC regularly and also buy on dips at various strategic points that they themselves determine in advance and perhaps adjust from time to time.. without necessarily getting too greedy along the way).

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

In evaluating the opportunities for the current price movement, it should be noted that there is a lot of resistance awaiting Bitcoin between 26.9k to 27.1k.

Perhaps. how do you know? just because people say that, or you have come to those conclusions yourself? How are you evaluating bitcoin? are you ONLY looking at charts and treating it as a mature asset class, or do you include it in terms of a paradigm shifting phenomenon that is in early stages of adoption that is likely to be on an s-curve an explosive at times that are not necessarily known in advance? You can use whatever frameworks that you like in terms of fucking around with trading rather than merely ongoingly stacking (and perhaps holding some in reserves for dips)..

and don't get me wrong, I have money prepared to buy on dips all the way down to $10k-ish.. though I hope and expect that it won't even go into the lower $20ks.. but I thought that in early 2022 too and I had to adjust my money in order to account for my possibly running out of cash.. .. so I feel that it can be quite difficult to build up a way to both mentally and financially prepare yourself.. including that i had done a large portion of my BTC accumulation in 2014 - even though I could not resist to continue to accumulate all the way into early 2017.. even though it just can become kind of complicated to deal with any of our BTC portfolios in the earlier days, and likely we start to feel more comfortable the longer that we are in and the longer that we are able to build it up in such a way that it ends up being in a profitable status down the road.. .. and in a lot of senses, I don't think that any of us should be rushing to try to get to a comfortable state.. especially guys/gals who are in their earlier BTC accumulation stages.. and even realizing that it could take them 4-10 years before they even start to come close to being comfortable in their BTC stash and the balancing of their dealing with BTC volatility that is likely to continue in the coming years.. likely even 10-20 or more years into the future... to the extent that any of us will still be alive at various longer term points in time down the road.

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

Therefore, it is not advisable to expect a sudden price increase outside this range.

It seems to me that each of us should always be preparing ourselves financially and psychologically for BTC price moves in either direction (including somewhat flat and/or range-bound BTC price moves).

if you are only preparing for one direction, then you are likely to get fucked. I have seen it plenty of times in the past, and I have no doubts that such unpredictability is going to continue in bitcoin for quite a bit of time to come into the future, and many of us likely already realize that one of the most inevitable things about bitcoin is its volatility, but we do not necessarily know in which direction... so good luck if you are ONLY preparing for one direction, you are likely going to need it... maybe you end up getting your preparation right this time, but seems like gambling to me if you are treating your bitcoin in such a way that is likely to bite you in the ass if you continue with those kinds of practices, but hey.. do what you like... You are completely in charge of your own financial and psychological preparations... but you are not going to get me to agree with your tactic that seems to be largely preparing for downity.. even during seemingly dire times like these.

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

As long as Bitcoin stays above the May low (preferably above the PW Low), expect Bitcoin to move slowly towards resistance, possibly experiencing some resistance.

I don't know what PW is.

But I get your point.. and yes, guys engage in technical analysis all the time in terms of figuring out how much BTC to buy at what points and also how much fiat to save, just in case the price might dip lower.

Quote from: YUriy1991 on Today at 08:24:45 AM

However, if no bad news is issued, there is a possibility for the price to increase towards the 28-29k region and I think, The key is to remain flexible and adapt to the ever-changing market dynamics.

Sure.. nothing wrong with those ideas... and hopefully each of us is also prepared for UP, just in case UP ends up "surprisingly" ends up happening... whether the technical indicators say that it should (or can) happen or not.

Quote from: Moshi Moshi on Today at 10:06:54 AM

Quote from: Sayeds56 on Today at 04:30:32 AM

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on June 06, 2023, 10:56:23 PM

There are really Bitcoiners who bought Bitcoin at $40k and some even above that, but most of them are still holding despite the fact that the market is still bearish. So, if you think you are at a loss because of the market, remember that there are also a lot of Bitcoiners who may have bought at a higher price than you did. Bitcoin investment is mostly long-term and not just what you will buy this month and expect to make profit the next month. If you want to make a profit in Bitcoin, then you should be ready to hold until the price becomes bullish again, because as long as you hold onto your Bitcoin and never sell it at a cheap price, you have not lost anything.

You made a valid point that, for Bitcoin investors, it is very important to understand that this market is very volatile and like other markets it also goes through bull and bear cycles and it is very challenging to predict the duration of these cycles . The other significant factor is our belief in potential of Bitcoin to thrive overtime. This belief greatly influences the success of our investment in the long term.

If you just have faith without you analyzing it technically, of course the success you will get is luck,
it can even be said to be an investment bet because you don't know how it will go,
but if we analyze technically, of course we know when we buy and when we sell.

This thread is not about trading...

Sure, guys can do technical analysis or they can do fundamental analysis.. or they can do some kind of an assessment of themselves and their circumstances.. and views on bitcoin is only one part of the various aspects to be taken into account, so getting too caught up upon technical analysis might not be a good idea.. especially since the vast majority of traders do not end up doing better than someone who employs a more solid strategy to just buy BTC regularly.. and also frequently the trader twats end up getting involved in shitcoins.. so there's a lot of complication in terms of getting too distracted, especially since it is quite likely that more than 99% of the world's population does not have any bitcoin or has small amounts of bitcoin, so better to get off zero and work on stacking bitcoin prior to getting too distracted into nonsensical timing considerations.. especially more advanced approaches that most people are not able to do that involve selling.. not a good idea when it comes to one of the best (if not the best) investment asset that has ever existed that is widely available to every person on the planet.. referring to bitcoin here, homie.

Quote from: Sim_card on Today at 12:13:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:39:42 AM

[edited out]

....holding for long and using DCA method is the only way that your bitcoin investment portfolio can attain a great height and value.

I would not say that DCA is the "only" method, since there is lump sum investing and there is buying on dips (the topic of this thread), even though DCA is amongst the best of methods to get started right away.. and hopefully, people who get started in bitcoin as soon as possible will end up tailoring their BTC accumulation approach to their own situation.. which may well mean to start out with DCA.. and then to figure out various goals that they have that are personally tailored.. that might take years to play out with various tweaks and adjustments along the way.. that hopefully relate to ongoing learning. and perhaps not devolving into those kinds of desperation and/or gambling strategies that you had referred to in your post Sim_card.