Quote from: tokeweed on Today at 12:27:06 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 15, 2023, 03:56:10 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on June 15, 2023, 12:39:34 PM

And I'm not really sure why you're saying support is at 23k because this is what I'm looking at... 25k or so was tested twice during August and Feb, before finally breaking out at March. Now it seems like it has flipped back to being resistance.

It's because $23K is the volume support, whereas there isn't a lot of support volume between $24K and $26.5K. It's also very close to the 200 Day MA* ~~currently around $22.5K that within the coming days will be at $23K~~. As you can see there is increasing volume support from $25K down to $23K, but similar to the correction in March, price came down to the peak of this volume support before reversing to the upside.

In summary, the same reason I was bullish about $20K acting as support, while others were fearing much worse prices, is more of the less the exact same reason why I see $23K acting as a support level. Arguably there is more chance of $23K acting as support than there was of $20K back in March, as back then the 200 DMA was barely rising, whereas now it's been in an uptrend for the past 3 months.

It's also partially due to the market mentally. Most were/are expecting $25K to act as support, somewhat similar to those who thought $22K/$23K would act as support back in March, whereas instead it failed. If most people expect old resistance to turn into new support it probably won't, especially with price effectively in a neutral zone between the 50 Day MA (declining bearish) and 200 Day MA (rising bullish).

Naturally I'd have a completely different opinion if for example the re-test of $25K was in line with some other support level, like the 50 Day MA, or otherwise the 200 Day MA, but this isn't the case. Old resistance on it's own turning into new support just seems unlikely to me, especially now the 200 WMA has broken. Whereas the confluence of support as described at $23K looks a lot more appealing to me.

Also the 50 Week MA has just started trending back upwards in the past few weeks for the first time in around 18 months and is priced around $22.5K. This is usually a defining factor or a confirmed trend reversal, similar to January 2022 when it flipped bearish, even if somewhat delayed. In summary, if $25K is the short-term support level, $22K to $23K is the long-term support level here.

*Had the wrong MA on that chart, it should have been the 200 which is currently at $23.7K (not 260 ie 5 year which is at $22.5K).

Ah right. Maybe I should start looking at the volume too next time as mostly I've just been looking at the price action when looking for support, resistance and when they flip.

Personally I've found that volume is key, not just support/resistance, MAs and other indicators. Volume is ultimately were the "interest" lies.

Quote from: tokeweed on Today at 12:27:06 PM

Is the blue and yellow area graph on the right all the liquidity in the order book? Makes sense if it is. But the thing is traders can pull their orders out anytime. So I'd not put too much stock in it.

Nothing to do with order book, this is a common misconception. It's purely buying/selling volume. Yellow is buying and blue is selling.

Quote from: tokeweed on Today at 12:27:06 PM

Anyway, yesterday's daily candle closed above 25k - 25.3k and it's holding today.

Despite my pessimism about $25K acting as support, there is certainly buying pressure from this level. Currently observing >$26K and it look promising. I'd still be surprised if price managed to reverse from this level, rather than remain in the downtrend channel and continue lower, but can't argue there is certainly buying pressure. How the Weekly closes could be of interest at this point.