Quote from: Biodom on June 24, 2023, 10:36:51 PM

Quote from: Gachapin on June 24, 2023, 09:17:47 PM

Quote from: Biodom on June 24, 2023, 06:32:36 PM

Quote from: Mr.corol on June 24, 2023, 05:11:22 PM

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1672226942173556736?t=xgG0cixZZz2dDxT9t32kHA&s=19

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.

For someone looking for a quick gain that was definitely the best point, and the most risk-free. But it's more obvious in hindsight.
PlanB made some more or less similar "trading rules" based on the previous cycles:

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf

But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

Yes, nice find, but I would like to state the following:

"Any market trend rule, once publicly revealed, stops working."

Perhaps, there is a rule like this on the books, I don't know.
I would just call it a market prediction fallacy conjecture (MPFC).

As a result, i wouldn't count on that -6 to +18 rule as it could very well become a -10 to +14, which means the time is NOW.

Yes I think about it the same way.
Actually, in light of the decreasing impact of the halvings, the timing of peaks and lows of this cycle being still similar to the previous cycles is almost a wonder to me ...
I guess it's because there are still enough new actors entering the market. As soon as most market participants know about the cycle history and behave accordingly, the cycles will probably break.

I don't know when that will be so I won't try to time the market by expecting certain cycle movements. Even though, every bear I wanna kick myself in hindsight for not selling the tops.

But buy & hold served me well enough (actually very well). It's lower risk and easy to handle.