Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Wiwo
on 30/06/2023, 19:06:32 UTC
Part of my contention with your suggestion that bitcoin is never a risk, remains any scenario in which bitcoin might go to zero.. or even spiral to zero over 10 or 20 years... which are non-zero possibilities.. even if many of us consider such possibilities of bitcoin going to zero (or spiraling to zero) to be quite low probability situations... maybe in the fractions of a percentage type of assignment of probabilities, like perhaps less than a 0.01% odds or may even lower, though it becomes quite difficult to assign odds when we are getting into sub 1% territories and maybe not even being able to figure out all of the knowns and the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns...and not even saying that I have closely gone through such a process beyond relying on representations from others and also some of my own hunches rather than facts or informed theories/scenarios.
Personally I also think the risk regarding bitcoin which will return to zero and I make sure everyone also thinks the same as the discussion that took place. But when talking about bitcoin there may be some beliefs that can lead someone to ignore the condition of fear that bitcoin will return to zero. For example, the limited supply and resilience of bitcoin in times of recession and inflation when Covid-19 hit, maybe this is only a small relationship from the process of my individual belief in fears of bitcoin risk returning to zero. But my instincts tell me this is not possible given the various power considerations that are in the journey of bitcoin and also not separated from the process of supply and demand, although sometimes the panic process that occurs can cause bitcoin to correct very badly.

Vice versa regarding people's concerns about regulatory limits that might continue to be developed by the government to make bitcoin an asset that does not have long-term resilience and various issues that are developed are packaged in a systematic and measurable manner by them. El Salvador has thwarted the government's mindset of overly worrying to bitcoin's future journey. So my personal assumption for bitcoin going back to zero is a 0.1% chance in the long term.

In the end, you seem to be assigned higher odds than me that Bitcoin could go to zero, but hey, I am not even confident in my own method of assigning any kind of a tangible number and trying to figure out potential attack vectors (or reasons that bitcoin might go to zero), and I am not even sure if it is necessary to outline a variety of scenarios beyond acknowledging that there is some kind of a non-zero chance that bitcoin could end up either going to zero or even going into a kind of marginal status that it does not continue to attract value to it.. beyond a niche group of people.
Like seriously the thought of bitcoin ever going to zero value has never crossed my mind and I never spear anytime to create thought on that but based on my experience and knowledge of such revolutionized tool like bitcoin and the internet point to the zero chance of them getting into zero value and becoming unattractive to users and that have been my baseline for continues bitcoin investment,  although there are constant price volatilities in the price of bitcoin and we have experienced were the price of bitcoin dropped in significant proportion but not up to the leave of becoming zero and in the last 10 years since Bitcoin came into existence,  there has not been a recording of such dump and that is what makes Bitcoin stand out from other shitcoin in the cryptocurrency market today.
 
Given that bitcoin is designed to increase in value in the long term due to its circulation reductions during each halving,  it becomes impossible to see such opposite development such as it becoming unattractive and valueless in the long term.