None of us can exactly choose the time in which we learn about bitcoin or that we figure it out, and there were people who thought that bitcoin would never go below $50k again.. which was not even a non-zero possibility.

So if we got into bitcoin in 2021, when prices were largely between $40k and $60k, one of the easiest things would have been to attempt to pace your accumulation of BTC.. and sure, it is possible that any of us might have had tried to front load our investment (to the extent that we might have had disposable capital that we would have had been able to invest at that time), and even if we were to have had made some larger front loading investments, it would have had still been prudent to keep a DCA and buying on dip plan.. which is almost the easiest of paths rather than fucking around with thoughts of selling and buying lower... or just HODLing without doing anything for 2-3 years or however long it might take to get back to profitability for those earlier purchased coins.

Surely none of us would have been buying between $40k and $60k and considering that it to have had been realistic for the BTC price to go down from our buying price point, yet we still would have had been able to look at the various charts and we would have seen that bitcoin spent a considerable amount of time in sub $10k prices for a lot of the time between early 2018 and even late 2020, so even though there had been price spikes above $10k, a decently large portion of that time period had BTC prices below $10k  (and buying during that time would have had gotten quite a few people with average BTC prices below $10k) - so even if we came into BTC in 2021 with BTC prices between $40k and $60k, we could have looked at the charts and appreciated that we might not want to go "all in" but instead to have some hedging abilities. and maybe some abilities to appreciate that the BTC price could go in either direction - even if we thought that it was more inclined to go up rather than down.. but then we ended up being wrong about that.

So even if we might have started to buy BTC in terms of the first BTC price spike in early 2021, we would currently be close to break even in terms of our costs per BTC as long as we continued to buy - so for example buying $100 per week starting on March 1, 2021 would have ended with $12,300 invested up until now and nearly 0.42 BTC accumulated. 

It is surely possible that instead of DCA buying, we might have had front-loaded our investment in the beginning by doing some kind of a lump sum investment, and that would have caused our average price per BTC to be higher, but  it still seems that currently we would be moving towards getting closer to break-even in terms of the value of our investment, and sure maybe in the end, it is not the easiest to accomplish a kind of ongoing buying while we are building our stake in BTC, but it does seem to be amongst the better (if not the best) of paths when we have already assessed BTC as a good long term investment.. so if we were to have had perceived BTC as a good investment when it's prices were between $40k and $60k, then we should have considered it to have had been an even better investment when the price dropped below $20k (including down to $15,479 and staying in that price area for a couple of months).. and so even now we may well be considering BTC to be a decently good investment around $30k. and still bringing down our average cost per BTC if we are buying now and maybe our average cost per BTC might still be a bit higher than current prices.


I think that you phrased that weirdly ajiz138, and I think that it is problematic to be counting on a new ATH in order to be profitable, so part of the reason to DCA into bitcoin, is to bring down your average cost per BTC, so you would not even necessarily need an ATH again in order to be profitable... so if someone had been investing in bitcoin for more than 2 years (like my case above starting on March 1, 2021), then if they are close to having their BTC costs being around $30k, then if BTC goes up to $50k, then their BTC holdings become around 66% in profits...

Of course, we feel better when our BTC is in profits rather than it being in the negative, but we still likely need to be careful in terms of expecting too much or even expecting that we are going to sell our BTC for dollars, because holding dollars is likely a losing proposition, even if we know that our bitcoin holdings are going to continue to fluctuate greatly in terms of their dollar value.