Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 17, 2019, 06:07:48 AM

You have no other option. I joke about the whalecumulators, but what else can we plebs do? Buy the dip, and HODL! You do not want to end up empty handed on the next cycle, https://twitter.com/misir_mahmudov/status/1118243131584065537

Always zoom out if in doubt, https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

Buy when the market falls deeply, but how much is deep? Buying at the bottom is also risky, as a drop in prices could be a sign that the market is about to crash.

You have to figure out a strategy that works for you.

If you are earlier in your bitcoin journey, then likely you should just be buying bitcoin regularly within your budget, and not fucking around with trying to figure out if there is a dip or not a dip. In other words, figuring out the dip is likely a position of someone who is already mostly secure in the various positions of their investment portfolio, especially including having comfort with how much bitcoin that they have.

After you have started to accumulate some bitcoin, you might be able to figure out points in time in which you start to feel that you have enough, or that you want to supplement your buying by trying to time some aspects of a dip within perhaps certain quantities or maybe within certain timelines, because also presumably you have cashflow coming in on a regular basis as well that would then likely figure into how much extra (disposable) cash that you have available to you at that particular time (or various times coming into the future, you would be able to foresee how much cashflow that you have coming in and the arrival of those cashflows would thereafter also end up affecting your budget).

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

It has also adjusted to over 80% in the past.

Yes.. for sure you have to account for BTC price history and where we are at and also try to identify if you have some ideas about momentum, direction and/or if any changes might be coming in the price direction, and surely the 80% or more price drops are also measuring from the top to the bottom, and we are in the middle of such correction of previous price drop from $69k to $15,479....

Don't be too greedy waiting for an 80% price dip from here.. or even getting back to the low point of this particular cycle, when even though those are not zero probability events, they are also probably not very likely, either.

It could be possible that we will never see below $30k again, but of course, sub $30k is close to our current price since the price is currently $30,400 as I type this post. .. and so the further down you go, $28.5k, or $26k or $24k or $20k, the more difficult it is likely to be that we would reach each of those price targets, so you likely would be a bit of a fool if you are too busy preparing for down and failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP in the event that down does not happen and even down to the level that you might be expecting to happen.

If you are brand new to bitcoin, and you have $12k over the next 6 months, but some of that you have currently available, maybe you would divide that into three and buy $4k immediately, DCA with the other $4k and then figure out some kind of a buying on dip plan iwth the remaining $4k, and how far you plan for your buys on the way down (and in what increments) would be a personal question, and again, I would not consider it too wise to fuck around with all or nothing strategies, but bit you have some budget and you have already put some value into BTC, then you would have more freedoms to take chances on the remaining portion to be able to buy at lower BTC prices, while realizing at the same time that the lower prices may well not end up happening, and then questioning yourself if you would be o.k. with that result or would that result cause you to panic and to end up buying while the BTC price is going up rather than your ability to figure out a BTC buying plan that is more comfortable and that you can live with whichever way that the BTC price ends up moving.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

Therefore, you have to determine which price zone is attractive enough to buy. As for where the bottom is, we can't guess.

I cannot disagree with these points.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

Let's discuss whether to catch the bottom or not and when the bottom is right, at what price will you sell?

I doubt that anyone is going to completely catch the bottom, but hey do what you like. And regarding selling, this thread is not about selling but instead about long term holding. If you want to talk about selling, take that shit somewhere else... to some other thread.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

Do you buy a valuable asset when it falls below the previous price, but is that the final bottom or will the price continue to fall and establish a new low?

You are all over the place with these questions. So we had a bottom in November 2022 of $15,479, but the BTC price shot up to $32k, and we have been mostly bouncing around in the upper $20ks for 6months, with a few corrections along the way. So do you want to talk about the last 6 months and whether the BTC price is going to correct again? How does anyone know those kinds of things? Part of the reason for preparing for either BTC price direction in terms of your budget and your psychology is so that you are not going to be disappointed no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term, especially if you cannot really know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term. You seem to be trying to suggest that there is some way to have some kind of confidence regarding BTC short-term price direction, which seems to be a trading mindset rather than long term investing, which is the topic of this thread.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

For asset classes such as stocks, real estate, gold... that have been around for a long time and are popular in the market, bottom fishing is very popular and it has resistances that are hard to break.

We are not talking about any of those traditional asset classes, including that bitcoin is not a mature asset class, and it also is likely not correlated to those markets and also there are likely dynamics in bitcoin that include exponential s-curve adoption... that will likely cause you to get fucked, and even more fucked then you seem to be trying to be because you are failing/refusing to appreciate bitcoin for what it is and trying to be smart and act like you know about markets, and applying those same ideas to bitcoin.

Good luck with that, you are going to need it.. even if you might end up being correct in the short term, if you fail/refuse to stock up on bitcoin for the long term or have long term ideas about it, then you likely are going to be having a hard time down the road.. whether that is a few years from now or maybe 6-10 years from now or some other time period in which you realize that you don't have many or any bitcoin, and you sufficiently knew about bitcoin but you failed to stack sats. and you fucked around with trading bitcoin (and valuing it in dollars) rather than really recognizing its world changing dynamics, its greatest wealth transfer in history dynamics and its paradigm shifting dynamics.

Probably you need to study bitcoin a bit more, rather than either studying trading strategies or trying to spread information about trading strategies, when you aren't even on topic here because you are missing some presumptions of this thread which is that within this thread, we are already presuming bitcoin to be a good long term investment - and that is why we are not talking about selling and/or trading (which seems to be your perspective).

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

However, with a new and volatile market like cryptocurrencies,

We are not talking about shitcoins here. We are talking about bitcoin. Do you know what is bitcoin?

Why are you using the term cryptocurrencies? We are not talking about that in this thread.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

bottom fishing can bring many risks because the market size is not too large, so some sharks can manipulate the market and break resistances. so you have to be very careful when catching the bottom in this market.

Sure... We know that bottom fishing can go on in any market, but so what? Also focus on bitcoin rather than all of the various bullshit related to some kind of an amorphous concept such as Cryptocurrencies, since there are 20,000 or more cryptocurrencies, and some of those markets are more liquid than others...

So even we focus specifically on bitcoin, bitcoin has a lot of markets within it, and surely there are various financial tools that are being developed, which could also cause some of those folks to get reckt when the markets are not very regulated and perhaps the third party offering the service does not have the coins that it claims to have.. so again, instead of speaking broadly, narrow your analysis down to bitcoin if you feel that you have some points that you want to make regarding likely manipulations that might be happening, in either price direction (which you seem to be wanting to focus on manipulation in the downwards direction)..

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

Should I catch the bottom of altcoins or the bottom of BTC?

You sound distracted.

Which is the head and which is the tail? does the head wag the tail or does the tail wag the dog?

Do you have any clues about that?

If we are considering what kinds indicators or what kinds of happenings in the world or what kinds of things potentially affect bitcoin prices, I thing that folks are going to get quite lost if they get overly focused on shitcoins, even if there might be short term price affects that are caused (or contributed) from various shitcoins, but if we are considering bitcoin as a long term investment, then why get distracted with that nonsense - including short-term BTC price moves that might come from those kinds of things - except surely we are talking about the possibilities of taking advantage of BTC price dips that might come from a variety factors and for a variety of reasons, including things happening in shitcoins, so then maybe we might have some buy orders at various price locations or maybe we are planning to execute our buy orders manually at various price points, if they were to occur.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

In my opinion, BTC should only be bottomed because it has been joined by many large organizations, appeared the earliest and is held by many organizations and individuals, so it cannot collapse.

You spend a lot of time focusing on whether bitcoin has bottomed, and now you are determining that it has bottomed. Go figure?

Still seems good to prepare for either price direction.. and how much you might have in your budget for buying on various dips and at what price levels should be something that people can decide... so for example, if someone (from my earlier example) has something like $4k in cash in his/her budget for buying BTC on dips, and if s/he already bought bitcoin, then maybe he would have buy orders down every $500, and whether s/he goes down to $28k or $26k or $20k could affect how much s/he sets at each of the increments.

Quote from: phuhuyxyz on July 15, 2023, 09:58:25 AM

As for Altcoins, there are already many coins with a value of 0. Or with coins in the top 20, you can catch the bottom.
After successfully catching the bottom, when will you sell them? That is a very difficult question to answer.

Fuck shitcoins.. we are not talking about which ones might be less shitty than others.. so take that nonsense somewhere else, it is not related to this thread.

Quote from: Odusko on July 15, 2023, 12:00:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 07, 2023, 03:20:51 PM

Quote from: Inwestour on July 07, 2023, 10:15:24 AM

...... there are those who bought bitcoin at 40k - 60k and still hold it and perhaps continue to buy and average the purchase price, this is also not so simple and only those who really believe in Bitcoin will do it. I think such investors have a very good chance of surviving the bear market and making a profit in the new bull market.

None of us can exactly choose the time in which we learn about Bitcoin or that we figure it out, and some people thought that Bitcoin would never go below $50k again.. which was not even a non-zero possibility.

So if we got into Bitcoin in 2021, when prices were largely between $40k and $60k, one of the easiest things would have been to attempt to pace your accumulation of BTC.. and sure, it is possible that any of us might have had tried to front-load our investment (to the extent that we might have had disposable capital that we would have had been able to invest at that time), and even if we were to have had made some larger front-loading investments, it would have had still been prudent to keep a DCA and buying on dip plan.. which is almost the easiest of paths rather than fucking around with thoughts of selling and buying lower... or just HODLing without doing anything for 2-3 years or however long it might take to get back to profitability for those earlier purchased coins.

What you said @JayJuanGee here is right because so many investors who never understood Bitcoin movement and market characteristics in terms of volatility and unpredictability of bitcoin price have come into Bitcoin when the price was at All time high and at that have to wait for a long time for the price of Bitcoin to recover back to the purchase price and also wait longer to see profits so to time the long term bitcoin holding slogans may seem to them as an unending journey.

I believe that it is not a very realistic scenario that people who recognize and appreciate bitcoin at $50k or more to be a good investment, to lump sum into bitcoin and to just sit on their hands for the next year or two and wait to be back in profits. Yeah sure some people gamble like that, but it does not seem to be a very smart position to just lump sum in and then fail/refuse to buy any more BTC until getting back into profits, so in that regard, if they continue to buy, then their average price per BTC should end up coming down.. even though the specific BTC that they bought at or near the top would still have those high prices that will take a while for those specific BTC to get back into profits (if they ever do).. by the way, if you keep buying BTC in the past couple of years, you do not have to have all of your coins to get into profits in order to profit from your investment by bringing down your average cost per BTC by continuing to buy at prices that are lower than your average purchase price and to continue to bring down your average cost per BTC.

Quote from: Odusko on July 15, 2023, 12:00:41 PM

Bitcoin vs DCA approach seems to be the best safe ride strategy but for that to be highly beneficial one need to have a long run-off knowledge of Bitcoin and in-depth experience of how the market reacts to various characteristic that influences the price at some point and that is not what a newbie investor can do.

Yeah.. but newbies do not necessarily need to figure out all of the particulars to bitcoin in order to continue to invest in DCA kinds of ways and to have good chances of profiting in the long run. DCA is meant to be a strategy that anyone can use, whether they know anything about bitcoin or know nothing about bitcoin, and an ongoing DCA practice is likely going to give options to people but surely how profitable they are or how long it takes to get into profits or even how long that they choose to follow such DCA practices can surely vary between people.