Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 08/07/2023, 21:07:44 UTC
Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902
It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things. Grin

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.

Yeah..all things considered, I would be surprised if we did not re-visit the pre-March 2020 prices, but it could take 5-7 years.
Some people are saying "wait until motgage interest rate goes back to 5%", suggesting that it would inflate the price even more, but would be able to afford it?