Yet, at the same time, it seems that historically the longer that anyone invests into bitcoin, the better off that they are likely to be.. so in those kinds of terms, the expression "it's time in the market, NOT timing the market" seems to be very applicable to the bitcoin space.
Interesting idea. I opened a chart with a timeframe of 1 week, I can even see with the naked eye that if you first bought Bitcoins at the top, say at a price of $69,000 (and continued to buy, keep the same time intervals and identical amounts), then your investment should have already paid off.
The last couple of years have been tough, especially if anyone might have front load their investment in 2021... and even bought a lot of coins between $50k-ish and $69k-ish.. so even if they continued buying after severe price drops in May 2022 and thereafter, it may well have taken a bit of extra efforts to bring their average BTC buy prices down to current prices.
Even Michael Saylor started buying in mid 2020 - when BTC prices were around $10k, yet his large subsequent buys in 2021 brought his average price per BTC up quite a bit... so he is currently ONLY barely in profits.
You can see in
fillippone's spreadsheet, which also has a link at the beginning of
his same thread on the topic of Microstrategies/Saylor.
Another good way to attempt to calculate profitability and how many coins that any of us might have gotten with a decently long term investment strategy into BTC is to look at the Dca.com website in which it tends to show that the longer that any of us has been in the BTC market, the more likely it is going to be profitable, so you can play around with dates (up to 9 years) and amounts in order to try to figure out how many BTC you might have been able to accumulate during your selected period of time.
So for example, if you had been
consistently buying $100 per week of bitcoin for the past 2.5 years, you would barely be profitable with an investment of about $13,300 and an accumulated BTC stash of 0.4468, so at today's prices you would barely be in profits, but if you increase the timeline, then the more and more you would have been in profits with a consistent investment strategy.
Of course, one of the aberrations of any DCA strategy may well be that we are not necessarily ready, willing or able to front load our investment into BTC (or any other asset) because for many people, their income goes up with time, so they are able to invest more and more with the passage of time - yet if the investment (asset class) ends up appreciating in value at a rate that is faster than the dollar losing value (or other investments) then their earliest investments were likely to have had the ability to compound more and more over the years in order to end up causing their overall investment portfolio to have had appreciated in value way more than the amount put into it, and some of that based on the appreciation of their earliest of investments.