Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 21, 2023, 04:58:46 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on July 20, 2023, 08:03:42 PM

Pointless post, I know, but...

Sick & tired of $29xxx - $31xxx. Come on, Bitcoin, do something, blah blah blah...

Seeing $4xxxx in the summer/autumn will be something. I won't dare dream of ATH this year. Don't mind it coming in 2024 (as it will).

Life is good, but can always be better.

The 2024+ cycle will be major, even life-changing, for many of us. HoDL strong WOers, we're getting there!

Personally, I am not going to rule out the possibility of an ATH in 2023, but yeah, we only have 5.5 months left, so it does not seem too likely to be able to more than 2.3x in the coming 5.5 months - even though we did see 3.5x (from $4.2k to $13,880) in 3 months between April and June 2019.. so it is not completely out of character or out of the realm of possibilities for our lillie fiend to pull of that kind of a "surprise" stunt.

What would be the odds for such a thing though? Not high but not lower than 10%.. perhaps 15% to 20%, which surely is nothing to poo poo.. .. and yeah, maybe I am being a bit generous to consider as high as 20%, but I am kind of ballparking the whole matter because I don't really feel like sketching out a complete list of possibilities and putting a timeline on such possibilities, even though it does seem that there are several members dancing around the wanting of information regarding those kinds of topics..

... this year versus next year versus 2025. .and without movement, it is not really easy to outline those kinds of things.. but when has it ever been easy to really have a lot of conviction when it comes to dee cornz.. other than LFC conviction in 4-year fractal theory, if that's what we want to call it.. which has been working out pretty good for a lot of us who include those kinds of ideas into our own way of looking at matters, even if maybe a wee bit less rigidly than seems to be the way that LFC goes about it. .which seems to not exactly not working be out for him (if that makes any senses?)..

Surely, an ATH in 2023 could come. But will it? I tend to be on the conservative side when it comes to expectations, so I'm not expecting it. I'm a strong believer in the 4-year cycle, and tend to plan my moves in sync with that. The 4-yearly halvenings are supply shocks, and these shocks are hard-coded and thus 100% predictable. This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin's future price trend is way more predictable than that of traditional assets, such as gold. Bitcoin is probably the only asset in the history of the world that has its deterministic elements set in stone (in code), and this gives rise to many interesting and extremely useful tools. Take PlanB's Stock-to-Flow models, for example, which are based on this. They were pretty good price predictors, until they recently failed to account for uncertainties that inevitably exist and affect price in unpredictable ways, at least in the short to medium term. But, does this completely invalidate them? I don't think so. I don't think S2F models are a complete failure, they still follow the long-term trend, but they must be superimposed by a (sometimes quite large) stochastic element that may appear to invalidate these models at times. In such cases, the "Just Zoom Out" technique can help observe the bigger picture that is often obscured by the short-term noise.

Even the 4-Year Moving Average, an extremely simple indicator in today's terms, seems to capture the long-term trend quite nicely. Sure, it was broken several times lately, but that's what stochastic processes, such as Bitcoin, do: they break deterministic models every now and then. Zooming out reveals the long-term trend, which is the reason such models exist. Just visit the above link and look at the chart. It's beautiful and tells us a lot about where the price will be in the coming years.

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.