Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 09:46:50 AM

A spot ETF is likely to be approved next year which will add fuel to the supply shock caused by the halving. I think we are looking at $200,000 or close to.

Why so bearish?

Cry

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 09:46:50 AM

The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Your "demise of the 4-year cycle" seems to be happening more quickly than I would have considered, but hey let's see.

I am tending to think that the 4-year cycle is going to last quite a few more cycles.. maybe even another 4-6 more cycles. But, yeah, I do get the idea that the block reward will not be very high after on or two more halvenings, relative to the overall BTC supply that is already circulating and/or has already been issued (or made available)... but then we still have the dynamic of ongoingly lost coins/access to keys.... which may well continue to be an issue that is greater than people speculate it to be. There are a lot of bitcoiners who have very inadequate succession plans, and even if they believe that they have adequate succession plans, their heirs gotta figure that shit out.. and will such heirs have enough information or even inspiration to sort through some of the puzzles in order to makes sure that they found all of the wallets and the keys - and maybe less fear (or rationale why) for those holding BTC on exchanges, because someone will end up getting the coins on exchanges of the deceased, but not the ones held in private wallets in which the information has not been adequately communicated (people keeping too much in their heads, including instructions upon how to get at the wallets).

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 09:46:50 AM

Quick prediction time -
2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000

Those are somewhat reasonable and maybe even a bit on the conservative side... I mean shouldn't the range be broader.. but yeah, you are trying to capture the more likely scenarios.. so I get you, I get you. .. it is like my rough ballpark idea that $3k to $5k would be around the top of the 2017 blow off top, but it did not cause me to cry like a baby merely because I found my lil selfie to be wrong by 4-6x, even though the BTC price did end up gravitating back to the $3-$5k arena for it's bottom after the peak,... which is a bit ironic, but did not really cause me to have any kind of correctness in that when that price range ended up being the subsequential bottom rather than the top of the blow-off-top for that period.

Quote from: Who is John Galt? on Today at 01:12:18 PM

Quote from: Learn Bitcoin on July 21, 2023, 11:14:21 PM

[edited out]

That's right, we don't know. But that's the beauty of bitcoin, that our knowledge doesn't matter. Satoshi Nakamoto remains the owner of his bitcoins whether he wants to spend them or not, whether he is alive or not, whether we want him to spend them or not. He has full control over his bitcoins. And no state or organization or anyone else has the ability to influence this. Only theoretically the entire Bitcoin community, but it will not do this.

What you are saying Who is John Galt? does not really sound right...

Sure you are correct that absent some kind of a breach or sloppily saving the keys, no one has access to the keys except for the person who has access to the keys, and so yeah someone can take their keys to the grave or take their keys with them when they get hit over the head and they no longer can remember which parts of the keys they need to put together or which devices (or services/or derivation paths) they were using in order to assemble each of the needed parts.

I am not going to call it control to lose your keys, unless you have done it on purpose, and most of the time, except maybe in Satoshi's case, would there be any kind of real justification to purposefully lose access to your keys.. unless you were purposefully wanting to donate your coins to the whole BTC community.. and sure some coiners may well be o.k. with that way of executing their inheritance to make BTC more scarce... ongoingly and ongoingly, since there are likely some folks who either intentionally or unintentionally have lost access to their coins.. and it is the unintentional ones who I have a problem in agreeing with you regarding their maintaining control of their coins, even though no one else is going to get their coins either.

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 01:26:23 PM

I think we’d all be very happy with something similar to this in the next 1.5 - 2 years.
@AurelienOhayon
BTC BULL RUN HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN.

Each bull run develops in 3 rebounds on ascending curved support.

https://twitter.com/aurelienohayon/status/1682714166480576517

If that kind of BTC price performance were to happen, you are not going to be happy LFC because that kind of BTC price performance would end up overshooting your current BTC price prediction.

You would end up being vvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrryyyyy sad. Cry

loss of sorcerer wannabe status

Tongue