I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.
tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.
I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever.
<Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625
BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1
BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.
Quick prediction time -
2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000
While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would.
Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH).
There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing.
therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 18K just a small decline to 2.6X
Currently the current swing (from lows to highs) order goes like this: First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7 low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "given" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it is still to reveal itself.
Personally, I think that acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur in the realm of inscriptions.
Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple is, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this.