Quote from: Biodom on Today at 05:00:28 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 09:46:50 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 07:54:17 AM

I'm not worried. Not at all. I'm just a little bored if I'm honest, and echo LFC's sentiment. That's really what my original post was about.

tl;dr: Just be patient and HoDL/DCA for 1-2 more years.

I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever.
<Snip>The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000

While agreeing that it could happen, I am not sure that it would.
Here is my reasoning: last cycle was "abnormally" timid (only a 3.45X swing over the previous ATH).
Why? There could be two possibilities: one would be externalities, like China mining ban+ shenanigans of Celsius+Blockfi+FTX, plus exorbitant share printing by DCG; on the other hand, it could be just mechanics of the cycles, where each cycle causes less and less upward swing.

Therefore, next cycle would be an interesting test and @LFC numbers suggest resumption of the 'strong' swings: 250K would be re-acceleration or rather continuation of the swing strength and 180K just a small decline to 2.6X.

The current history of "swings" (from lows to highs) order goes like this: First halving-from $2 cycle low to $1160 high(580X); Second-from $175 low to $20K high (114X); Third-from $3.2K low to $69K high (21.5X); Fourth-from supposed $15.7 low to ? high. Unfortunately, if the "swing" reduction factor from prior cycle to the next would be the same, the next number in the sequence is roughly 4-5X, which is ONLY 63K-78.5K, which is terrible. I, myself, don't believe that we would be "dealt" such cruel cards, but whatever 'acceleration' mechanism could be in play, it is still to reveal itself.

Personally, I think that the acceleration that makes @LFC numbers is possible, but would occur via realization of the potential in the realm of inscriptions.
Imagine this: each sat could have some informational packet attached. This opens up virtually unlimited potential in the future. Heck, every single Apple share could be inscribed on 157 bitcoins maximum (only 0.00074% of all bitcoin while Apple is, by itself, corresponds to 7.4% of US total stock market cap). There is plenty of room in bitcoin for ALL property plus future asteroids, planets, etc, etc...and that is even without going to sub-sats. Think about this.

Миналият цикъл се характеризираше с много фактори, които е добре да си припомним. Първото и най-важно е от какво дъно започнахме.
1. Ковид паниката от 19.03.2020 срина цената до 4К. Ако година и нещо по-късно, тя беше вече 65К. Това е 16х ръст!
2. Цената 65К не беше плод на спекулация или еуфория, а на засилен интерес. Трябва да се отбележи, че месеци наред се задържаже на тези нива, което го нямахме преди.
3. Туитовете на Елон нанесоха сериозна вреда и първият голям спад до 30К беше шокиращ за новите.
4. Въпреки всичко, в рамките на няколко месеца донякъде и заради новината за ЕТФ за фючърси, цената надмина старото АТХ и достигна 69К. Там някъде китайците започнаха да се паникьосват и да ръсят фъд новини за да повлияят на цената. По традиция, това наистина се случи. Паралелно с това, огромен процент купени биткойни се оказаха ФТХ хартиени боклуци, което също повлия негативно. Цял куп институции бяха повлечени надолу като домино и цената удари дъното от 15600.

Въпросът е, докъде можеше да стигне биткойна, ако не бяха всички тези лоши новини. Смятам, че щеше да има пик от над 100К, като спадът щеше да е в диапазона 25-35К.

Следващият въпрос е докъде може да стигне биткойна 2025-та. В най-лошият сценарий - без ЕТФ, с бан от САЩ и Китай, старото АТХ лесно ще бъде задминато. Това означава пик над 100К най-вероятно. По принцип ще има потенциал и за 200К, но едва ли лицемерните като Гари, Уорън и оня дебелия ще мирясат, докато не изсерат някоя простотия и да спрат растежа. Те са ужасени от биткойна, защото застрашава банковата им система, която се крепи единствено на фалшиво доверие. Ако хората знаят истината, която федералните крият, веднага биха си изтеглили парите и купили биткойни. Но простолюдието обича да го лъжат с празни обещания, доверяват се на банките и един ден разбират, че са били измамени. Твърде късно, обаче. В тази връзка, подозирам, че куклата на конци Гари се дърпат от Уорън и дебелия. Така че е много вероятно да не дадат одобрение за ЕТФ. Дали това ще доведе до връщане на мечия пазар ще видим. Нищо не бива да се изключва. Но има още много време до 2025та, така че се надявам пораженията на тези помияри да бъдат заличени дотогава и да се радваме на нови АТХта.

The last cycle was characterized by many factors that are worth recalling.
1. The Covid panic of 19.03.2020 crashed the price to 4K. A year or so later, it was already 65K. That's 16x growth!
2. The 65K price was not the result of speculation or euphoria, but of increased demand worldwide. It should be noted the price stayed in this range for months, which we did not have before.
3. Elon's tweets did serious damage and the first big drop to 30K was shocking to newbies.
4. However, within a few months due to the news of the futures ETF, the price surpassed the old ATH and reached 69K. Somewhere in there, the Chinese started panicking and spreading FUD news to hammer the price. By tradition, this gave result. Meanwhile, a huge percentage of bought bitcoins turned out to be FTX paper junk, which also had a negative effect. A whole bunch of institutions were dragged down like dominoes and the price hit the bottom of 15600.

The question is, how far could Bitcoin have gone if it weren't for all this bad news. I think there would have been a peak of over 100K, with a cycle bottom in the 25-35K range.

The next question is how far Bitcoin can go in 2025. In the worst case scenario - no ETF, with a ban from the US and China, the old ATH will be easily overtaken. That means a peak above 100K most likely. Basically, there will be potential for 200K, but it's very likely that hypocrites like Gary, Warren and the fat banker will do everything to stop the growth. They are terrified of Bitcoin because it threatens their banking system, which rests solely on false trust. If people knew the truth the feds are hiding they would immediately withdraw their money and buy bitcoins. But the common people like to be lied to with empty promises. On that note, I suspect puppet Garry's strings are being pulled by Warren and the fat one. So it is very likely that SEC will not give approval for the spot ETF. Whether this will lead to a return of the bear market remains to be seen. Nothing should be excluded. But there is still a long time until 2025, so I hope that the damage from these scavengers will be erased by then and we will enjoy new ATHs.