Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 27, 2023, 01:49:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2023, 05:02:09 PM

Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 26, 2023, 01:12:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 25, 2023, 02:46:48 PM

Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 25, 2023, 10:41:31 AM

your question or title is 2024 but you posted in 2023 , but indeed 100k in 2024 is not impossible to happen , we even reached 68k in 2021 why not after halving next year can make it double or even triple of the past ATH?

I am the one of those who trust this market that will bring me another chance to multiply my folio and with bitcoin in my account , there is no way that I will be losing that expectation .

So yeah, I am with you bitterguy28 - considering the top around $100k for the next run seems like quite a whimpy expectation level, and perhaps a lot of whimpy folks will be selling way too much of their BTC way too soon, and what else is new in bitcoinlandia?

I may consider selling sad to say mate , but not as much as others will , there is something that I wanted to buy and that had been my target plan since I started Holding my bitcoins and that will happen if bitcoin reached 6 digits, but this is just small percentage of my Holdings as I know that there are more way to come for our precious bitcoin.
i have several mistakes from the past bullrun so i will never do the same this time.
as i don't wanna blame my stupidity like what i did in the last 2 bull market.
but thanks for being with me here and to all of us who will support completely this market.

Yes.. it is up to you whether you sell 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 100% or some other amount - and many times it is not wise to sell 100%, even when you consider that there are pretty strong odds that you are at the top.

actually it is 10-20% of my total funds that I was planning but depend on how much bitcoin will reach to cover my target amount to take out , hope it will be lower percentage than that.

Of course, you can plot out various scenarios, and even though some of us might be selling BTC every $2,500 that the BTC price goes up, others might have smaller increments and others might have larger increments, and of course, the increments should actually get larger as the BTC price goes up based on percentage considerations.

So for example, you could have sell orders planned for $85k-ish 95k-ish, $125k-ish, $145k-ish $185k-ish, $245k-ish and perhaps at some other locations.. and some of those could be set in advance - even though if you do not have very many of them, they can be set up manually when the price starts to approach those kinds of price ranges... and the total amount of sales (in terms of what the percentage is) could be in either direction.. and if you are kind of inclined to error on the side of selling less, then you can project out those prices and see what it looks like if you were to take a more aggressive selling approach as compared with taking a whimpier approach (and I don't mean whimpy to be denigrating..)

Of course, if you project out the range that shows more aggressive versions and whimpier versions, then you could surely end up pulling the trigger somewhere in the middle or maybe you do end up carrying out the whimpier version, but you likely will feel better if you think through it in advance and you realize that you have already accepted that you need to do something and the whimpier approach would be an easier threshold to cross as compared with the more aggressive approach might be harder to execute, even if you at least see what it looks like on paper (when you project it out).

My sell increments now are about every $1k, and
about every $1,500 for BTC prices between $40k and $55k,
then about every $2,000 for BTC prices between $55k and $70k,
then about every $3,000 for BTC prices between $70k and $100k,
then about every $3,300 for BTC prices between $100k and $120k, and
then about every $5,000 for BTC prices between $120k and $150k.

I have not established sell orders above $150k - but you can see the pattern that I already have, and you might well realize that I prefer the employment of a kind of incrementalism, but hey I have already been over-allocated in BTC ever since 2015.. and it is not like I sold very many along the whole way, even though I have a systemic practice of selling small amounts .. that allows me to feel a bit better when the BTC price seems to inevitably correct.. and sure, my increments and spreads have gotten larger throughout the years.. both in terms of quantity and also in terms of percentages, too. In other words, my orders are filling quite a bit less frequently than they did when i first started, yet at the same time, I do sometimes end up reverting back to tighter buy and sell orders, especially in recent times with what I considered to be a surprise and somewhat unprecedent amount of correction that took BTC prices so far below the 200-week moving average that caused me to get more involved in my buy/sell orders than I had previously thought that I would be.

Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 27, 2023, 01:49:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2023, 05:02:09 PM

I personally don't expect to sell more than 50% at any one price location - absent some really strong worldly happenings - and really, I am at such a point in my bitcoin holdings management that I am more driven by considering various expenses that I might have rather than trying to insure for volatility risk--- even though many members have likely already heard that I have had an ongoing practice of selling around 1% of my BTC for every 10% that the BTC price goes up .. and I started such practice when bitcoin was in the upper $500-ish price range.. and surely these days, I believe that I am selling less than 0.5% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.. as a kind of BTC portfolio management that makes it more easy to never run out of either bitcoin or cash.

for that I truly admire you , carrying to sell that very small amount from your folio? you seem to be completely financial stable at all cost of living Grin

Of course, I am a bit older than many of the folks in these parts (not everyone, but many), and so when I got into BTC in late 2013, I had already spent quite a bit more than 20 years building an investment portfolio.. so by the time I got into bitcoin, I had funds that were already pretty sufficient to sustain me.. but part of my goal was to be able to attempt to match the size of my various other investments (especially my 401k) with my BTC investments, but I thought that it might end up taking 10-20 years before my BTC investment might reach the same size as the majority of my other investments; however, even though I made some mistakes in bitcoin, my BTC holdings largely ended up coming close to parity of the size of my other investments in early to mid-2017 depending upon how the measurements are made.. and even when BTC went up in late 2017 and corrected back down in late 2018, my BTC investment still largely remained of a value that was quite a bit higher than all of my other investments. so with BTC I pretty much reached my investment goal (in terms of dollar value) within less than 4 years, and a lot of that were bonuses and icing on the cake.. because I did not structure my investment into BTC in any kind of a way that I felt that I had to get those kinds of outrageously high returns. Largely I hoped that my BTC would at least appreciate around 5% to 6% per year, which had been my historical average with my other investments over the previous 20 years, so I did not feel that I had any kind of a problem to continue to get on average around 5% or 6% per year with some down years and some up years but still averaging out to be around 5%/6%.

Of course, we can look back and see that bitcoin may well have gotten around 2x every year - even though I consider with some of my various mistakes along the way, I am really only counting a return of about 75% per year.. .. and maybe I am not really calculating very accurately, but I don't really care that much. I mean the fact of the matter is that I started out with some BTC average prices of around $1k, but then I got my average down to below $500 per BTC, but then I made mistakes, and so I like to consider my current average cost per BTC to still be around $1k.. and using $1k per BTC makes it easier to calculate that my BTC holdings had gotten to 69x in late 2021, but corrected back down to 15.5x in late 2022, and currently are around 29x.. and so fucking what that they were volatile, they are still way up as compared with anything else that I hold..

Maybe on average all of my other non-BTC investments (traditional investments such as equities, property, commodities and cash equivalents) might have doubled in value between 2013 and 2023.. but my BTC did a 29x.. so that no matter how you slice it, the BTC is way out performing any other investments, and I really do not expected that there is any kind of strong case that BTC prices are going to correct further from here.. but even if they do, so what? I still have a pretty strong cushion, just like anyone else who has been in bitcoin for a decently amount of time and who have been mostly erroring in on the side of holding and accumulating and maybe just selling relatively small amounts of BTC when BTC prices go up.. which they seem to have a lot of good chances to continue to go up.. in this cycle and in future cycles.

Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 27, 2023, 01:49:36 AM

but me that have just enough to sustain daily living (with small extra to invest for Bitcoin and for emergency cases) i rely more on my crypto funds for my better future.

Even though your selling plan does sound pretty conservative, maybe you are not really in a place to sell very much of your BTC? I don't know. You have to decide whether it is worth it or not, and if you planned strategy is a good one or if there might be some way that you might be able to tweak your strategy.

And my the way, your use of the word "crypto" bothers me. Fuck shitcoins. I hope that you are not distracted and diluting your funds, your energy and your brain power with nonsense scams.. because it seems like a BIG waste of time, and all of my shitcoin holdings are less than one percent of my total crypto investment, so currently I have about 0.62% of my total crypto portfolio in shitcoins, about 2.2% in cash and about 97.18% in bitcoin.... and in my overall investment portfolio, right around 75% is in crypto (including the cash that I have dedicated in that), and therefore 25% is in non-BTC assets, such as stocks index funds, property, cash equivalents like bonds and commodities... Even if my BTC were to go to zero, my non-BTC assets are enough to allow me to sustain my standard of living (of course, I live a bit better because of bitcoin).. but I have enough to pay my expenses without my bitcoin investment... which was largely the case when I started investing into bitcoin, I ONLY invested extra into BTC.. I did not really take away from my already existing investments in order to invest into bitcoin, even though I mostly stopped adding to my non-bitcoin investments...except for some real property acquisitions.

Quote from: bitterguy28 on July 27, 2023, 01:49:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 26, 2023, 05:02:09 PM

Part of my "issue" was that in late 2014, I had come to the decision that my BTC accumulation target was going to be around 10% of the size of my then quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and I had largely met that 10% target by the end of 2014 - however, since 2015 was mostly a down (or flat year) for Bitcoin, I ended up continuing to invest into bitcoin throughout 2015 (even though I also had some cashflow issues in 2015 that interfered with how much I was able to invest into bitcoin), and by the end of 2015, my investment into bitcoin had largely gotten to about 13.5% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and because I had overinvested in bitcoin, I found it justifiable to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up.. and I created various formulas that largely allowed me to sell parts of my holdings for as low of prices as $250 based on the BTC being in profits, and even thought the totality of my BTC holdings were not in profits until the BTC price would have been over $500, but the ability to sell some small amounts of BTC based on my formulas were based on some of my BTC being in profits that I had bought in the $200 prices in 2015 and at other price points below $500.

yet those are best decision as what we are seeing in bitcoin price now , wondering how much is your total profit as this we speak lol

I think that I answered this. I would like to estimate my profit levels to be something like 29X.... since I like to use $1k as my average cost per BTC.. and it is somewhat easier to calculate and to estimate it by using that kind of a ballpark number... which I think it is a fair representation.

Quote from: Reatim on July 27, 2023, 02:26:28 AM

Quote from: chillaxe on May 06, 2023, 09:42:43 PM

65K Last year record price ever !

I think this year it might be full 100K Final bullrun for the coin.

If you can manage to keep your funds till whole time of 2024 then you will celebrate with us then but if you are just posting this but not willing to Keep holding , then there is nothing waits for you when we finally break that 100k , since 2017 , this has been a dream for every bitcoiner to see that range

hahahahaha.

I don't think so.

In 2017, many bitcoiners were dreaming for $10k, and then quite a few of them did not know what to when the dream was reached and surpassed. In 2017, I had actually thought that $3k to $5k would be the top, even though sure, I did not sell very many BTC even when BTC prices shot way past $5k and did another 4x after that.

The dream and common expectation of $100k did not really come until the next cycle.. and maybe sure 2019/2020 and 2021.. with 2021 really focusing on that number.. including the influence of Stock to flow.. and surely those stock to flow ideas including easily surpassing $100k were not unrealistic, but they just did not end up happening, as we know.. and currently, it seems to be quite whimpy to be focusing on $100k or even thinking that $100k will be the top.. even though sure, there are no guarantees... but focusing on $100k seems a wee bit whimpy and/or maybe under estimating a potential top for this cycle.. or even a realistic place to be taking meaningful amounts of profits...

.. .. but hey whatever, do what you like. I recall so many guys saying how rich they were going to be if BTC were to hit $1k in 2015/2016.. and as we know $1k was a very whimpy number and not a very smart place to be selling your BTC... so quite of few of those guys might have made some fiat, but they missed out on a lot of BTC profits due to their overly anxious selling too much too soon.

Quote from: Reatim on July 27, 2023, 02:26:28 AM

so if we are blessed that the bull will serve us what we are waiting , then indeed that 2024 will be the year But it is not the Final Bullrun that you are calling , because that is just
another Bullrun of many to come , trust Bitcoin and you will see what this can bring you

I cannot really disagree with you here, Reatim.. It does not sound like you will be selling too many too soon.. but hopefully you do not feel regrets either .. because none of us can really know how these matters might play out.. we might get $1 million or more in this cycle, or we might not even end up breaching our current $69k ATH.. so I am not going to proclaim NOT to prepare for any scenario, while at the same time, one of the more common errors is that guys fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP... that's why we still ONLY have less than 1% of the world's population that hold any significant amount of bitcoin, and maybe even some of the current holders are also under-allocated.

Quote from: Latviand on July 27, 2023, 04:54:50 AM

If bitcoin follows the current market history then there's a possibility that we will see it increase threefold like what it did last bullrun so there's a possibility that bitcoin will go more than just a 100k but I could be wrong though, I don't know where you got your notion that 2024 is going to be the last bullrun because afaik there's still a lot of bitcoin yet to be mined.

There is still a lot of bitcoin adoption that is still to occur. There is not a lot of bitcoin to be mined ... even though sure, there will be block rewards until 20140.. but even now the block rewards are shrinking by quite a lot each four years because the amount of bitcoin left to mine is not very much when measured in terms of how many BTC have already been mined and are in circulation (even though sure there are likely the private keys to several million bitcoin that have either accidentally or purposefully been lost).