Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 12:00:49 AM

Quote from: Biodom on July 27, 2023, 11:38:54 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 27, 2023, 10:09:54 PM

The Fed and Jay Powell is so so so full of shit.

They'll look at all the seasonal spending over the summer (which would be a completely normal, typical level of spending by the way), call it "still inflation" and hike again in September.

But who the fk cares at this point. It really doesn't matter what they do for the rest of this year.

They've already signaled that a change in monetary policy is coming next year. They are already signaling that rates cuts are coming.

But why, out of the blue, would they just start cutting rates come first of next year?

Hint: they won't. There's no fkn way they start cutting rates without a valid reason. That reason is the (planned) rug-pull event they already have hashed out.

Whatever the trigger will be, whatever dominoes they allow to fall, it will be a shitshow.

And the Fed will be all like, "Oh wow, who could have seen that coming?? Hur dhur, I guess we have to cut rates now." Roll Eyes

They would "have" to do a rug-pull because if they don't and just start cutting rates because the inflation is getting low, then real estate would jump and, therefore, the forward looking inflation expectations would increase as well, defeating the whole carefully orchestrated "program".

this is the third time i have watched them do it

late 90s ended kind of okay
2007-2008 crash and burn 🔥
2022 to now ?

The interesting thing to me about this time as opposed to the other two tightening cycles or rug pulls is that there is high inflation this time. When you look at the crash of 2008, bank assets across the board were taking a heavy hit that lead to cascading liquidations. This time is a little different because higher and more stubborn inflation is keeping valuations buoyed. Instead of banks causing pain from the top down, we’re going to see pain from the bottom up. This means more crime, more people losing their houses, but in a different twist this time, those who are “haves” will continue to see their assets increase in value. The line between haves and have nots is being drawn and it will likely be generational.