Quote from: AverageGlabella on July 31, 2023, 02:33:58 AM

I was not expecting the price of Bitcoin to stay at this price when the halving is approaching very soon. I do not know if we will see major movement by next year but we usually see a increase just before a halving. I would expect to see it already. Does any one have ideas why we are struggling when we have not in previous years?

Every year (or cycle or whatever) comes out differently, and even if they might kind of look a like, we need to be careful in terms of putting too many expectations regarding how things might play out in terms of their specifics.

If you think about it, your description of where we are at (versus where we have been) is not even correct.

Do you recall that we spent a pretty solid 2 months that were mostly in the lower $16ks?

It seems that our current position shows a bounce from that point, no?

It's not enough of a bounce for you?

Our current spot is pretty damned well in the range of 50% to 80% up from that 2 month low.. and we have been here largely since early to mid March.. so that is getting close to 5 months.

Hey, it is not even guaranteed that we will go up from here, but it still seems to be a great place to be stacking sats.

Remember in 2015 we had spent about 8 months in the mid $200s and then we spent another in early 2016 for 6-7 months mostly in the lower $400s.. and yeah people were pretty depressed each time that these stagnant periods happen.. we can go through each of the cycles and see those kind of things, and yeah the time periods do vary, but still they seem long (and uncertain) while we are going through them, and surely if you are thinking about the 3.5x boost that we got between April and June 2019, that was absolutely amazing, and surely it could happen again, but you cannot count on those kinds of wonderful and spectacular events that really fuck up a lot of bears. Sure we want to see those events, but you are unrealistic if you are putting high odds of those kinds of amazing things to happen.

Don't get me wrong, there are pretty good chances that at some point bears are going to get reckt as fuck, but who knows when it is going to happen or if it is going to happen, but I would not write off such a bear fucking.. even if we cannot really have any confidence in what price range or how it might be triggered and/or when. We know the holding the ball under the water meme.. and yeah, the ball could stay held under the water much longer than any rational person can stay solvent.. including another couple of years (doesn't seem likely, but it could end up playing out that way). Strong hands gotta be prepared for anything .

I recall that you had said that you had bought some more BTC, and if you have been buying in the last year-ish, you should be in really good shape right now in terms of the supplementation of your earlier BTC purchases (I cannot remember if you did them in 2021 or was it early 2022.. maybe it was during the mid-year 2021 dip), and not even needing a doubling or a tripling of the BTC price in order to be in pretty solid place in terms of your own current BTC holdings.. which I recall had been in the mid $30ks.. but if you had been aggressively buying BTC in the last year (even $100 per week), then you may well could have brought your average purchase price down a few thousand, perhaps?

I am not exactly trying to get into your details, even though sometimes it does help to work with some numerical frameworks, even though almost no matter what any of us do, there can be ways to frame the situation in ways to suggest "I could have done better." blah blah blah..

And, we can ONLY do what we can do.. and we can ONLY act now, if there might be something that we might want to do now in terms of buying or planning buys or even other less recommendable strategies, as you know that I don't really recommend anything except buying especially if your holdings might either be in the negative or barely into profits, if they were to happen to be in profits.

Quote from: Learn Bitcoin on July 31, 2023, 03:08:40 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 30, 2023, 05:57:31 PM

What you were saying is relevant to everyone. You don't have to be a miner because if mining death spiral were to happen, we would all be screwed.

One thing to make many of us MOAR happier, is that we have already seen how incentives play out.

It's called the difficulty adjustment.

Have you heard of it?

Even though I am a novice, yeah I heard that. But, I don't know how it works. I am not in a rush to learn these things overnight. But, I won't mind if you take your time with a rusty pipe.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 30, 2023, 05:57:31 PM

but since he laughed at my post, I get the sense that he understands difficulty adjustment as it relates to the mining death spiral.. even though sure he might agree with you on some of the levels of what you are saying...

Why pick on phil? This is not about phil.

Cheesy

Well, I admit that arguing with JJG is not an easy job being somewhat newbie in WO. So, trying to pick Phil on my side for some kind of support Cheesy

I hope you don't mind. I believe he has greater knowledge about difficulty adjustment or whatever you say about mining things which I don't have. So, I won't be able to answer you back if you start writing these things. Now it's obvious why I pick Phil. Cheesy

Maybe it is not a bad tactic?

We all have to start somewhere, and I am not sure where to point you.

There are a lot of basic things about bitcoin and a variety of resources, and there are even threads that are aimed at some of those basic ideas that have links contained therein too.

The difficulty adjustment is basic, but it is surely one of the most amazing things about bitcoin, too.. ... and I don't even have enough of an ability to explain it, even though there are a lot of people who do great jobs explaining those kinds of things.

Anyhow, maybe you can just save your post, and then you go and look up some issues in relation to the difficulty adjustment, and then respond to yourself or maybe provide us with your information that links to the other sources. I am sure guys here would not shirk away from commenting on your comments that are attempting to bring up substantive ideas, especially if they are grappling with actual dynamics rather than your just making shit up in regards to the mining spiral that does not work out in reality as much when you attempt to account for the actual bitcoin that contains a difficulty adjustment about every two weeks (every 2016 blocks).

You can even watch it here:

Latest Block:   801132 (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9365% (781 / 789.40 expected, 8.4 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   53911173001054.59
Current Difficulty:   52328312063443.84
Next Difficulty:   between 51791367219011 and 51991573996741
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0261% and -0.6435%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 8:39 AM (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 9, 2023 at 10:54 AM (in 8d 14h 41m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 9, 2023 at 12:16 PM (in 8d 16h 2m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 15m 22s and 14d 3h 36m 42s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

and here:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Of course, there are other places that you can watch various aspects of the dynamics of the difficulty adjustments, try to understand it MOAR better and to see what bitcoin-informed people are saying about such an eight wonder of the world.

Quote from: Xinarae* on July 31, 2023, 02:01:19 PM

BTC price ‘fireworks’ after monthly close? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week.

Source.

I would have rather that you would have summarized something about the article.. including potentially highlighting the 5 things.. but I sent an smerit anyhow.. even though you probably didn't deserve it..

hahahahahhahaha

Tongue

Quote from: Greyhats on July 31, 2023, 03:35:04 PM

Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor

You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.

Is my understanding correct?

I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.

I doubt that this explanation is complete, but it seems to be in the ballpark of something kind of decent.

Let's say if the guy is waiting for his next drink but people keep joining in the cue, so there are ways that he can shorten his time or stop his time from getting longer, and what would that be? Maybe he has to bring a BIG thug friend with him, like a guy from the Mafia, then he gets back to his original time, even if there are more people waiting, he still has to wait, but the fact that he brought some extra muscle into the mix is going to work for him for a while, until the next guy brings his mafia friend.. etc etc.

and every so often (after 2016 drinks are served) the bartenders are added or subtracted based on whether drinks were served every 10 second or if it took longer.

Whatever.. I am fucking this up.. it was your analogy in the first place.. and I am just trying to suggest that there was something incomplete about it.