Quote from: somac. on Today at 09:05:21 AM

Quote from: psycodad on August 03, 2023, 01:46:11 PM

Quote from: somac. on August 03, 2023, 01:09:10 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 03, 2023, 11:53:30 AM

Quote from: fillippone on August 03, 2023, 11:33:44 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 03, 2023, 11:24:23 AM

My body is ready for up only season.

@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.

These are certainly all valid reasons for the way the price developed after the last halving, though I wouldn't too quickly discount the fact that with every halving the amount of reductions is also 50% smaller, hence I believe (as others already said here) the effect of the halving we will see will be weaker with every new halving. I believe this will somewhat flatten the curve (pardon the pun) over time and therefor the following "winter"/bear season might also not be as cold as it was in the past, so to speak.

With the 1st halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 3600 coins
With the 2nd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 1800 coins
With the 3rd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 900 coins
The next halving will reduce the daily supply "only" by 450 coins (only 12.5% reduction of the first halvings reduction!)

Ofc I'd love to see the price to go the moon in the next bullrun and growing adaption and the much touted ETF thingies might offset the above described effect of weaker halvings to some degree.
We'll see, but I consider everything 6-figure ATH in the next two years as perfectly fine for my expectations. (Could perfectly live with a 300k ATH too, no problem there Grin

)

Hard disagree here with you psycodad because when you look at the halving in USD terms it is substantial:

Assuming the price of the next halving is at 30k as in the table above, that is a decrease of 13.5 million USD value daily. That is big, and far bigger than in the past. The halving effect will continue to be a big deal IMO.

You certainly have a good point there too, but that also means it takes a fuckload more fiat to lift price by any given percentage (compared i.e. to when it was $12).

It's all hypothetical at this point, quite probable none of us got it right, but I am highly confident it will keep going up for ever ~~Laura~~ somac. Grin

And to reiterate that, I am highly bullish for next 2 years but I'd rather prefer to be positively surprised with my expectations than being disappointed (as in last cycle).